ICICI Direct expects USDINR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The rupee extended losses for a fourth consecutive session losing almost 0. 30 % yesterday. Rising risks of domestic fiscal slippage as well as Brexit woes weighed on the rupee. It has lost almost 2. 88 % from its recent highs of 69. 23 against the US$ • The dollar was mildly higher even as the Euro declined yesterday. As expected, the Brexit juggernaut continued with UK Prime Minister Theresa May winning the no confidence motion yesterday. As of now, market participants continue to adopt a “wait and watch” approach. We expect volatility to continue in the markets amid Brexit uncertainty.
Sovereign treasury yields rose to 7. 27 % due to the outflows in domestic debt and concerns over fiscal slippage. Negative moves in the rupee in the last few sessions are further aggravating concerns on domestic debt • US treasury yields rose due to rising expectation of positive movement in US - China trade talks . However, investors would be tracking upcoming Fed monetary policy meeting in the backdrop of lower expectation of faster rate hikes.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar - rupee January contract on the NSE was at 71. 32 in the previous session. January contract open interest increased 4. 35 % in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
|US$INR January futures contract (NSE)||View: Bullish on US$INR|
|Buy US$ in the range of 71.14 -71.22||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 71.50 / 71.60||Stop Loss: 71.02|
|S1/ S2: 71.20 / 71.10||R1/R2:71.50 /71.60|