ICICI Direct expects USDINR to find support at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The rupee witnessed its fifth consecutive daily loss to end at 70.89, down by 6 paise vs. the US$. RBI cut interest rate by 0.35% yesterday, higher than the market expectation of a 25 bps cut. The rupee is expected to open higher as some cool-off in Yuan and slump in oil prices is likely to benefit the rupee • The US dollar moved lower while otherwise trading in a range against major currencies. The Chinese Yuan is currently trading near 7.04 levels, mildly higher than previous day. It could see some consolidation before it starts weakening again as US-China trade war continues to hit risk sentiments.
Sovereign bond yields rose to 6.37% even as RBI cut the policy rate by 35 bps. A sharp cool-off in global yields as well as crude oil prices is likely to support domestic debt in the near term • US 10-year yields witnessed a mild uptick and rose to 1.73% yesterday. However, recent escalation in US-China trade war is likely to see the Fed remain dovish citing increasing risks to growth.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar-rupee August contract on the NSE was at 71.01 in the previous session. Open interest increased 4.69% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to find support at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
|US$INR August futures contract (NSE)||View: Bullish on US$INR|
|Buy US$ in the range of 70.67 -70.73||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 71.00 / 71.10||Stop Loss: 70.53|
|S1/ S2: 70.75 / 70.60||R1/R2:70.9 / 71.10|