ICICI Direct expects USDINR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise the downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The rupee extended gains for a third consecutive session to end at 70.03, gaining 31-paise vs. US$. However, it is expected to open lower today tracking overnight gains in the dollar as well as depreciation in Chinese Yuan • The Dollar Index rose yesterday supported by higher US data. US housing starts data for April jumped to 1235000 units against 1139000 units in March. However, the focus would remain on Chinese Yuan, which has depreciated to 6.90, down over 2.6% since the trade war re-escalated. EM currencies including rupee are likely to remain under pressure as the Chinese yuan continues to depreciate and crosses 7 vs. the US$.
Sovereign benchmark treasury yields declined to 7.38% on Tuesday. Yields remain in a range in the backdrop of gradual rising oil prices but subdued global yields • US treasury yields rose to 2.41% as the US President’s comments soothed the simmering US-China trade friction. China has retaliated with punitive tariffs while the US is readying the list of $325 billion worth of Chinese imports into the US for further up to 25% tariffs.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar-rupee May contract on the NSE was at 70.14 in the previous session. May contract open interest declined 4.46% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise the downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
|US$INR May futures contract (NSE)||View: Bullish on US$INR|
|Buy US$ in the range of 70.23 -70.27||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 70.55 / 70.65||Stop Loss: 70.08|
|S1/ S2: 70.20 / 70.05||R1/R2:70.50 /70.60|
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