ICICI Direct expects USDINR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise the downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The rupee continued to suffer deeper losses as rising risks of USChina trade spat and tariffs are weighing on risk sentiment. It is likely to open lower today while two-day talks between US-China would be keenly watched • Dollar index remains in a range ahead of US-China two-day talks. Friday remains the deadline for increase of import tariffs on Chinese imports to 25% from existing 10% on $200 billion worth of goods. JPY continues to gain vs. US$ as risk aversion has led to flight to safe haven. Outcome of the trade talks likely a key trigger for the near term trend in markets.
Sovereign benchmark treasury yields remained unchanged at 7.38% on Wednesday. Yields have witnessed mild cool off as slump in oil prices coupled with relatively calm rupee has supported debt • US treasury yields recovered to 2.48% but investors remain spooked by the US President’s renewed tariff threats. Overall outcome of the US-China talks has become significant factor to improve global risk sentiment.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar-rupee May contract on the NSE was at 69.89 in the previous session. May contract open interest declined 1.84% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise the downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
|US$INR May futures contract (NSE)||View: Bullish on US$INR|
|Buy US$ in the range of 69.93 -69.97||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 70.20 / 70.30||Stop Loss: 69.79|
|S1/ S2: 69.95 / 69.80||R1/R2:70.20 /70.40|