ICICI Direct expects USDINR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise the downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The rupee traded volatile on Friday ending stronger by 4-paise vs. US$. It is expected to open slightly weaker today while mounting uncertainty around US-China trade rift outcome as well as domestic elections outcome would keep it on the edge. Depreciation in Chinese Yuan is likely to put pressure on most EM currencies including the rupee • The Dollar Index was mildly lower on Friday even as US-China trade talks failed to elicit any concrete outcome. Trade uncertainty is likely to stretch over a month even as China remains defiant to protect its own interest. JPY could continue to remain bought in such a scenario against the US$ as well as most currencies.
Sovereign benchmark treasury yields rose to 7.41% on Friday. Yields remained in a range in the backdrop of gradual rising oil prices but subdued global yields • US treasury yields rose to 2.47% as US-China trade talks could have scope to find some conclusion over the next month. Actual implementation of tariffs as well as any retaliation by China could further hit risk sentiment and weigh on global yields.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar-rupee May contract on the NSE was at 70.04 in the previous session. May contract open interest increased 0.09% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise the downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
|US$INR May futures contract (NSE)||View: Bullish on US$INR|
|Buy US$ in the range of 69.93 -69.97||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 70.20 / 70.30||Stop Loss: 69.78|
|S1/ S2: 70.0 / 69.80||R1/R2:70.20 /70.40|
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