ICICI Direct expects US$INR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise the downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
The rupee extended losses of almost 10-paise against the US$ yesterday spooked by strength in the dollar as well as trade war concerns. It is expected to open mildly higher today while a move in the dollar ahead of FOMC policy meeting is likely to provide direction to EM currencies including the rupee • The dollar was slightly changed against major currencies due to a recovery in Euro and caution ahead of Fed policy meeting. Although the Fed is not expected to raise rates in the June policy meeting, market participants would be looking ahead to Fed’s rate trajectory and statements for cues on the interest rate path.
Sovereign benchmark treasury yields rose mildly to 6.93% while an overall cool-off in global yields is supporting domestic debt. The cool-off in yields and strength in the rupee is supporting flow in domestic debt markets • US treasury yields ended at 2.09%, slightly higher ahead of Fed’s two-day policy meeting. Risk of US-China trade war is weighing on US yields while Fed’s dovish assessment could see yields remain under pressure.
Currency futures on NSE
The dollar-rupee June contract on the NSE was at 69.99 in the previous session. June contract open interest increased 4.98% in the previous session • We expect the US$INR to find supports at lower levels. Utilise the downsides in the pair to initiate long positions.
|US$INR June futures contract (NSE)||View: Bullish on US$INR|
|Buy US$ in the range of 69.74 -69.78||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 70.05 / 70.15||Stop Loss: 69.60|
|S1/ S2: 69.75 / 69.60||R1/R2:70.05 / 70.20|