Buy Tata Motors; target of Rs 192 Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Tata Motors

Consolidated performance for Tata Motors over Q4FY19 surpassed our expectations, with JLR operating margins at 9.8% v/s our estimate of 8.8%. Standalone margins however, stood lower than expected at 7.3%, owing to high discounting in the industry. For full year FY19, JLR EBIT margins came in at -0.7% (Q4FY19 EBIT at 3%) and the management has again revised their EBIT guidance for FY20-21E downwards at 3-4% (earlier 3-6%) on account of demand challenges and run-out of their most selling models Range Rover & Range Rover sport. While dealer inventory levels have lowered in China, demand is yet to pick up, wherein some recovery is expected H2FY20 onwards. TTMT's cost reduction efforts have been yielding results, however, volume uptick remains key.

Outlook

We currently factor in 5.8%/6.7% volume growth for JLR for FY20/21E respectively and downgrade to ''Accumulate'' with the target price of Rs192, where we value JLR at 1.5x Mar'21E EV/EBITDA and Standalone entity at 9x Mar'21E EPS.