ICICI Direct's research report on NMDC
NMDC reported an operationally healthy set of numbers for Q4FY21 wherein topline and EBITDA came in higher than our estimate. For Q4FY21, NMDC reported sales volume of 11.1 MT, up 29% YoY, 19% QoQ (our estimate 11.1 MT). For Q4FY21, NMDC reported topline of Rs 6848 crore (up 115% YoY, 57% QoQ), higher than our estimate of Rs 6133 crore. Better-than-expected realisation aided Q4FY21. NMDC’s blended realisation for Q4FY21 was at Rs 6138/tonne, up 67% YoY, 32% QoQ, higher than our estimate of Rs 5500/tonne. EBITDA for the quarter was at Rs 4242 crore (up 184% YoY, 53% QoQ), higher than our estimate of Rs 3996 crore. For Q4FY21, EBITDA/tonne was at Rs 3847/tonne, up 110% YoY, 27% QoQ, higher than our estimate of Rs 3600/tonne. Ensuing PAT for Q4FY21 was at Rs 2836 crore, up 35% QoQ (our estimate of Rs 3031 crore).
We value the stock on an SoTP basis and arrive at a target price of Rs 210 (earlier Rs 125). We upgrade the stock from HOLD to BUY recommendation.
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