Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Lupin
LPC received approval for gProAir HFA (Albuterol Sulfate) that offers a revenue opportunity of US$140-155m over next 8 quarters beginning from 2QFY21E. The total market size of Albuterol Sulfate Inhalation Aerosol is US$2.9bn of which 44% market share is held by ProAir. While there are 9 companies in Albuterol (including 3 AG, 6 generics), LPC and Perrigo are the only generics in gProAir and plans to launch their generics in Aug CY20. We expect LPC can potentially have 5% Rx share of the Albuterol Sulfate Inhalation market and 20% of ProAir as all 3 brands are interchangeable with each other, plus doctors prescribe 44% of medicine in generic name of the molecule. LPC may also gain advantage of Perrigo’s gProAir supply issue in the near-term.
We incorporate Albuterol’s incremental benefit in our assumptions and increase revenue by 1-2% over FY21-23E and EPS by 8% / 8 / 5% for FY21/22/23E and derive new TP of Rs1,085 (earlier Rs1,001) based on FY22E. We maintain BUY.
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