ICICIdirect.com`s research report on LIC Housing Finance“LICHF’s advances currently stand at Rs 97528 crore, which makes it the second largest housing finance company (HFC) in India after HDFC Ltd. Including banks, it comes at the third position after HDFC & SBI with each having 15% market share. Since FY07, we observe that LICHF has increased its loan book at an aggressive pace of >25% CAGR vs. industry growth of ~15-17%. Consequently, LICHF’s market share increased and has almost doubled in the last seven years to ~10% now. The growth has been predominantly led by the individual loan book (retail book), which accounts for ~97% of the total book. Developer portfolio (high yielding) has shrunk to 3% from 10% as on FY10. The management has guided for loan growth of ~20% ahead. We expect loan book CAGR of 19% over FY14-16E to Rs 129619 crore, again mainly led by the retail portfolio. However, we also factor in a rise in proportion of developer loans to 4.5% by FY16E from ~2.6% currently.” “Management has guided for loan traction of 20% ahead. We have factored in 19% CAGR in credit over FY14-16E vs. 17% earlier. We have raised our FY15E NIM estimate to 2.35% from 2.3% earlier owing to declining trajectory in money market rates. We believe NIM improvement is the key catalyst for the stock to get re-rated higher. Accordingly, our PAT estimates increases to 19.7% CAGR to Rs 1887 crore over FY14-16E from 17.5% earlier. Recommend Buy with TP of Rs 370 (1.9x FY16E ABV),” says ICICIdirect.com research report.
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