YES Securities' research report on Indraprastha Gas
The 3QFY23 reported Ebitda at Rs 4.3bn (-9% YoY; -19% QoQ), stood marginally lower than our estimates, primarily on above estimated gas costs at Rs 38.3/scm (+95% YoY; +9% QoQ) and lower than estimated CNG sales. The gas sales stood at 8.12mmscmd (+6% YoY; 0.4% QoQ) driven by 7% YoY higher but 0.3% QoQ lower CNG sales at 6.07mmscmd, and 13.5% YoY and 10.8% QoQ higher PNGD-D sales at 0.5mmscmd. The operating margins at Rs 5.74/scm, declined 14%YoY & 19% QoQ, as increase in domestic gas price to USD 8.57/mmbt (from USD 6.1/mmbtu) was not fully passed on. With LNG prices on a decline and impending implementation of Dr. Kirit Parikh committee recommendations, the gas costs for IGL are likely to get tamed, enabling company to command either better margins or higher pricing headroom with respect to alternate fuels, or both.
Outlook
Maintain BUY rating on IGL, with a Mar’24 TP of Rs 535/sh.
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