Emkay Global Financial's report on Amber Enterprises
We are revising our forecasts for Amber again by 1) lowering FY23-25 RAC volume estimates by 6-9%, 2) reducing export revenue assumptions for CBUs from FY24 and beyond and 3) tweaking margins by 15-20bps with a higher cut for FY23. We believe that Amber's outperformance vs. the industry would be limited going forward, unlike in the past. Elongated approval timelines and potential rise in competition from Chinese players could also restrict full potential of CBU export opportunity in near-term. However, our robust FY22-25E revenue growth projections for components (~34% CAGR) is underpinned by strong demand from brands with increase in local sourcing as ecosystem will evolve under ongoing PLI scheme and Amber's strong market positioning.
We trim FY23-25E EPS by 5-14% and also lower the target multiple to 25x from 30x to arrive at a TP of Rs2,350. Maintain Hold. After the steep fall in the Amber's stock price recently, downside looks limited. We also note that there are no immediate upside triggers.
At 11:47 hrs Amber Enterprises India Limited was quoting at Rs 2,228.95, up Rs 59.10, or 2.72 percent.
It has touched an intraday high of Rs 2,272.50 and an intraday low of Rs 2,211.35.
It was trading with volumes of 901 shares, compared to its thirty day average of 10,044 shares, a decrease of -91.03 percent.
In the previous trading session, the share closed up 2.83 percent or Rs 59.70 at Rs 2,169.85.
The share touched its 52-week high Rs 4,023.65 and 52-week low Rs 2,029.80 on 02 May, 2022 and 20 June, 2022, respectively.
Currently, it is trading 44.6 percent below its 52-week high and 9.81 percent above its 52-week low.
Market capitalisation stands at Rs 7,510.16 crore.
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