Nita Rana, a resident of Nainital, said the little picturesque town tucked in the Himalayas has transformed since her childhood.
"Today, it rains several months in the year, and even in the winter. And, the frequency of landslips (falling rocks) has increased over the years," she added.
Anup Shah, another resident and a wildlife photographer, said that houses in parts of the city and near roads like Mall Road have already started showing cracks. "With unplanned development and road works, several trees in the forest have tilted," he added.
Joshimath, a small town in Uttarakhand, began "sinking" in January. More than 700 homes developed cracks, and several families were evacuated.
Shah has witnessed at least a dozen cracks in houses across Nainital over the last few years.
Kamal Jagati, a local journalist, told Moneycontrol that most of the cracks show up in weak and landslide-prone parts of the city like Sher Ka Danda, which has 2,000-3,000 houses, and Ballia Nala, which has about 25 houses.
"Most of the houses in Ballia Nala have been demolished after the area became extremely unstable, and people have been rehabilitated at another village, Durgapur, with minimal compensation," he said.
A National Green Tribunal (NGT) complaint filed by advocate Akash Vashisht flagged several infrastructural failures in Nainital, as the city inches closer to a tragedy.
Experts say due to illegal construction, and deforestation, among other such activities, parts of Nainital have already started sinking.
In the last Uttarakhand state budget, the government set aside Rs 1,000 crore out of Rs 77,407.08 crore for immediate relief to Joshimath.
Additionally, as per the state government order, the compensation for evacuated residential buildings has been fixed at Rs 31,201- 36,527 per square metre (sq mt). For commercial buildings, the rates are Rs 39,182-46,099 per sq mt.
However, environmentalists say the cost of a disaster is much more than the investments required to fix the infrastructure and planning failures.
For example, Jagati said, building a house in Nainital is three times more expensive than building one on the plains. The elevation is a major hurdle, coupled with restrictions placed by the state government in recent times. Even then, Jagati estimates, due to illegal constructions, the carrying capacity of the town has exceeded by 30 percent.
"Today, a 1,000 square feet (sq ft) construction costs about Rs 50 lakh. Rebuilding will be more expensive given the prices of commodities today and soaring land costs," he added.
The complaints
Vashisht said, according to a letter from Nagar Palika Parishad, Nainital has 148 hotels registered under the tourism department.
"Contrary to the stated figure of 148 hotels, Nainital has 600-700 hotels / resorts / guest houses / homestays, etc," the complaint pointed out.
Additionally, the construction and installation of iron sheets and girders on steep slopes have disrupted the ecological balance of the mountainous town. "Massive land erosion and landslides were clearly seen on the slopes immediately below the huge iron structure, as a result of this construction and the tremendous load exerted by the platform on the steep, soft slopes below," the complaint added.
Vashisht added that the slopes of the area were geologically very unstable and since the vegetation was cleared for such construction, the absorbing capacity of the hill slopes has been drastically weakened.
Vashist also pointed out that a defunct Tree Felling (Permission) Committee to scrutinise deforestation and reckless vertical hill cutting for road widening have added to the woes.
Several landslides were seen on the stretches and spots where roots of trees were exposed and vegetation cleared in the process of vertical hill cutting.
Most importantly, the stormwater drains leading to the Naini Lake have been covered with thick concrete slabs ― to widen the road and offer more space for traffic movement.
A ticking time bomb
Ajay Rawat, a historian and environmentalist, added that the urbanisation of Nainital started in 1841. The first two landslides occurred in 1867 and 1880.
"The second landslide killed 151 people and the British government built a series of stormwater drains connecting the Naini Lake. However, post-2005 much of it has been encroached upon," he added.
Rawat approached the Uttarakhand High Court with a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) and got several of the encroachments removed over the next couple of years. In 2015, massive rainfall struck the town.
A letter addressed to Rawat from the district magistrate office dated March 2016, accessed by Moneycontrol, said, "On July 5, when heavy rainfall lashed Nainital; mud and water cascaded freely down the drains. Had the gushing debris been blocked owing to encroachments, there would have been a tremendous loss of life and property[sic]."
One of the outlets of Nainital is the Ballia ravine that pours into the Ballia valley. The town sits on top of its shoulders.
Experts say, such unregulated developments and encroachments have put tremendous pressure on the foothills and the Ballia valley has started to sink.
In Ajay Singh Rawat v/s Union of India's March 1996 Supreme Court judgment, the court ordered a ban on multi-storeyed group housing and commercial complexes in the town area of Nainital, allowing only construction of smaller residential projects.
"Development has exceeded the capacity Nainital can accommodate. Any further triggers can cause water to flow out of Ballia valley and reach the foothills like Haldia. Parts of Nainital like the Mall Road, area around Sherwood College, and Snow View area have already started sinking," Hemant Dhyani, a member of Char Dham High Powered Committee constituted by the Supreme Court, added.
Policy interventions required
Dhyani said that Joshimath has only a fraction of Nainital's population. "Any similar tragedy will lead to a huge loss of life and involve thousands of crores in damage," he added.
However, experts say, the policies for remedies are already in place.
"For example, the state has Climate Change Action Plan 2014 that articulately explains how development is supposed to take place. However, a lack of implementation has left the town in limbo," Dhyani said.
In fact, in 2021, the state government mulled a climate budget to regulate ecological activities considering the effect of climate change on the Himalayan region.
Vishal Singh, Director of the Dehradun-based Centre for Ecology Development and Research (CEDAR), said that the town needs to be urgently decongested. "In peak seasons, we see more tourists than the total number of residents. The planning and development bodies have ignored the characteristics of the Himalayan region," he added.
Dhyani said with lessons learnt from Joshimath, the government needs to assess the carrying capacity of Nainital based on ecological factors. "We need a more sustainable approach to development and should incorporate indigenous traditional architecture suitable for the mountainous region," he added.
A senior official at the Uttarakhand district development authority told Moneycontrol, "The concrete coverings for stormwater drains in Nainital have been constructed through a state government project. We will take further action if needed."
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