Brijen Puri, head - currency trading operations, South-East Asia, JPMorgan said that RBI governor Shaktikanta Das's comments immediately after the crude jump re-emphasised that the Central Bank is watching the growth closely, hence indicating that a rate cut is likely in the upcoming policy.
The Reserve Bank of India is likely to cut the key rate by 25 basis points in the October monetary policy, said Brijen Puri, head - currency trading operations, South-East Asia, JPMorgan.
Puri added that RBI governor Shaktikanta Das's comments immediately after the crude jump re-emphasised that the central bank is watching the growth closely, hence indicating that a rate cut is likely in the upcoming policy.
“We will probably see 25 basis points (bps) of a rate cut in October from the RBI. Going forward also, the growth situation does not look like improving materially. Globally, geopolitics is also not looking great. Given that scenario, we should see some more rate cuts to follow as well," said Puri in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
“Globally we are seeing a bit of a pause in terms of the way yields have been moving and more importantly, the pressures on fiscal is where people are getting worried, whether it is tax collections or the crude scare that we saw. With the announcements of yesterday, we will probably see some production come back onstream but yet the overhang remains up until we see the production completely back online," he added.
In terms of Indian bonds, Puri said, “On the sovereign bonds, globally we have not seen as much real money allocation to EM bonds. That has been relatively muted and that is also showing in the foreign portfolio investment (FPI) numbers. We have also not seen too much of FPI outflow, so that part is reasonably okay. On the corporate bond space, what we are hearing is there is a lot of interest in people trying to figure out where is the mispricing because, with the way the scenario has played out, people are worried about any and every corporate risk. Therefore, there are pockets of value which would make sense and we are seeing investors trying to look for those areas of value. In the more distressed or wherever the uncertainty is higher, there is a lot of interest that we are seeing from investors.”
On expectations from Fed, he said, “The Fed seems to be reasonably well communicated, people are expecting a 25 bps rate cut, maybe not too much of a change in the dot plot. We expect that Jerome Powell will remain dovish."Source: CNBC-TV 18The Great Diwali Discount!
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