Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | An advent calendar for markets

Considering markets are divided over the fortunes of the dollar, expect much hand wringing as we head towards end of year.

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In the early 19th and 20th centuries, Germans began using a calendar to mark the days leading up to Christmas. The Advent calendar, traditionally of 24-25 days starting with the first Sunday of Advent, is about hopes, gifts and anticipation of an important event. Small flaps marked for everyday contain a gift, an activity or simply a Bible verse or story to celebrate in the run-up to Christmas.

Commerce, technology, and our insatiable appetite for experimentation has led to various versions of the Advent calendar to suit everyone’s needs. We thought to indulge in one more: an Economic Advent calendar of six things to anticipate or take note in the six weeks to Christmas. We apologise if not all the things bring joy or hope.

Week one: Data divination

The past month was marked with the absence of key economic data from the US as the government shutdown meant departments did not collect data or survey for them. The critical jobs data and inflation prints are AWOL and there is no guarantee that all of it would be released. While September payroll data is expected next week, the White House has said data for October may not come at all, given issues in collection. Same goes for the absent inflation prints. This data fog is going to trigger more speculation and volatility. Considering markets are divided over the fortunes of the dollar, expect much hand wringing as we head towards end of year.

Week two: Gift of growth

This month would also see some key gross domestic product data from various geographies, but the most relevant and anticipated would be of America. Going by past comments of US Federal Reserve officials including chair Jay Powell, the US economy is doing very well. But there is the argument that inequality has risen, which Robert Armstrong of FT argues here, is overdone. Indeed, forecasts suggest that the US economy would show 2 percent growth in the third quarter even though payroll data at times show that the jobs market is not robust just yet. For Wall Street, GDP is going to be just a tick in the box that says American exceptionalism is unchallenged.

Week three: The Golden hedge

Gold has been the asset of the year with central banks chasing it like there is no tomorrow. But everyone plays a different game and central bankers are said to be diversifying their holdings which is a sound investment strategy. But gold’s relentless rise has given rise to various narratives, from the beginning of the dollar’s slow decline to warnings of inflationary episodes ahead. Either way, investors are piling up on the precious metal and it is unlikely to stop just yet. In all likelihood, gold may continue to outperform other assets for some time.

Week four: The gift of rates

The US Federal Reserve will decide on policy rates in the second week of December by which jobs data, and inflation would be out, but far from giving clear signs of how the economy is doing. The US government shutdown has cast a shadow over data quality and created a gap that won’t be filled. The Fed will have at its disposal patchy metrics, but it also would have its own assessment from various high frequency numbers. The odds of a rate cut appear dim so far and Powell’s comments weigh heavily on sentiment. Many, however, believe that the Fed won’t be able to hold out on rate cuts for long and that is reason enough to cheer.

Meanwhile, back here, rock bottom retail inflation leaves little room for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to avoid cutting rates as we explained in our yesterday’s Panorama.

Week five: AI’s wine and water

Much of investor wealth on Wall Street has been thanks to a handful of Big Tech companies entwined with each other by Artificial Intelligence (AI) bets. AI has not only driven much of societal debate, but also market valuations this year. The stratospheric rise in valuations of AI tzars like Nvidia, Meta and others has led contrarians to call out the bogeyman. We wrote in an earlier Panorama how Michael Burry is betting against AI or perhaps just hedging. Burry since then has closed his hedge fund citing unhinged valuations. The AI narrative seems to be slowly unravelling as technology stocks have taken a big beating. What awaits New Year? Perhaps, it is time to ask ChatGPT.

Week six: A dime, a dollar and destiny

The world economy runs on the velocity of the dollar. How dollar flows through borders and into markets determines the fate of economies, including that of America. The US currency has not been having a great time recently and its value against a basket of key currencies (the dollar index) has plummeted nearly 10 percent this year. Behind this decline is a growing distrust for US assets, especially when market valuations have climbed to scary levels and so has the government’s fiscal deficit. So far, there is no clear consensus about the dollar’s journey for the rest of this year. But a Santa rally in the greenback is unlikely as the fog of data clears.

Investing insights from our research team

Weekly Tactical Pick: Is the correction in this stock music to the ears for investors?

Asian Paints Q2: Momentum back – But is the competition increasing?

IRCTC – Modest earnings; stock underperformance merits attention

Tata Steel Q2 FY26 shines on domestic strength

Eicher Motors Q2 FY26: Steady performance

Data Patterns: Can it deliver in the long run?

Endurance Technology Q2 FY26: Multiple catalysts at work

What else are we reading?

Chart of the Day: Is the gold rally a warning about inflation ahead?

Thematic schemes are booming, performance is not

EPL sets an ambitious plan to improve return ratios

Apple's negotiations with Google show its innovation engine has run dry

How India can retain its healthcare workers

The golden age of US credit card rewards may be at an end (republished from the FT)

Saffronisation with social justice: A grand success of Modi formula in Bihar

Trump’s Asia Visit: Key lessons for India in securing a fair deal with the US

Why ‘Bharat Mata’ is central to the RSS’s concept of patriotism

Markets

Expect stronger consumption growth from Q3 onwards, 2026 outlook promising, says Mirae Asset MF CIO Neelesh Surana

Technical Picks: SUNPHARMA, PGEL, MANAPPURAM, JSWSTEEL

Aparna Iyer
Moneycontrol Pro