Saurabh Mukherjea, founder and CIO of Marcellus Investment Managers, talks about five key themes from where growth is likely to come going ahead. These themes are women, new elites, China plus One, and Southern India.
Here is what he says about each of them:
Women – Mukherjea said that recent data reveals that women’s participation in financial markets, including mutual funds and bank accounts, is rising sharply. Women’s mutual fund investments are growing 35 percent more than men’s, reflecting a broader global trend observed over the past 40 years. He also added that the now 60 percent of women entering the colleges are women.
Rise of new elite –Mukherjea said that India's elite is moving beyond the traditional South Bombay or South Delhi types. Today, the influential elite is increasingly from smaller towns and regions, often SME owners, many of whom are not from top-tier institutions like IITs or IIMs.
According to income tax data, the number of people earning over a crore annually has surged from 40,000 in FY14 to 2.2 lakh today. This growing group, representing roughly 3 lakh families, drives significant consumption in premium products like real estate, bikes, jewelry, and more. While the middle class struggles with entry-level car sales, premium item, Mukherjea added.
China plus One – Mukherjea said that with Trump’s win in the US, the China plus One strategy is going to play out really well. Apart from that, China's economy has been pulverized due to the implosion of a massive real estate bubble, a beleaguered banking system, and a face off with America. India, with its large skilled labour force, stands to gain from these developments, as per the presentation shared. Because of this, knowledge-intensive manufactured products like smartphone APIs, and medical devices could create a $300-billion per annum (10 percent of GDP) opportunity for India. Global giants like Apple, Foxconn and Merck are proactively rewiring their supply chains away from China and towards India, he said.
South India - Seven southern states (Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, and Maharashtra) per capita income has grown at 10 percent p.a. CAGR in FY14-22. These Southern seven states account for 30 percent of population, 45 percent of GDP and average per capita income of -$3.3K. Also, Southern seven's per capita income is 50 percent higher than that of India's, from 35 percent higher a decade ago. All of this is set to help the companies coming out from these regions, Mukherjea said.
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