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Will subdued GDP numbers put the brakes on the market?

The Indian economy may have slowed for the sixth consecutive quarter in July-September to 4.7 percent, Fitch group firm India Ratings and Research said in a recent report.

November 29, 2019 / 10:33 AM IST

India's July-September quarter GDP numbers are to be released on November 29 and are likely to slip below 5 percent or even to the lowest in a decade.

Rating agencies and experts think that growth numbers slipped further in the second quarter of the financial year 2020.

The economy may have slowed for the sixth consecutive quarter in the July-September to 4.7 percent, Fitch group firm India Ratings and Research said in a recent report.

The Indian economy probably expanded at its weakest pace in more than six years in the quarter to September, a Reuters poll showed, as consumer demand and private investment weakened further and a global slowdown hit exports.

ICRA expects India's growth rate to fall to 4.7 percent amid weak demand and tepid investment.


On the other hand, the Indian equity market's headline indices the Nifty, Sensex and Bank Nifty are at all-time highs despite growth concerns.

Will the market be able to hold the gains despite growing signs of weakness in the economy?

Even if the numbers disappoint, it is unlikely to have much impact on the market, experts say.

"Looking at the recent estimates from various economic agencies and subsequent downward revisions for H2-FY20 growth numbers, the benign GDP growth in the current fiscal year is more or less priced in by the markets and we think right now markets are focusing on the policy steps being taken by the government to reverse the trend. Now, any decisive move in the markets would be based on how effectively the government initiatives translate into growth," said Narendra Solanki, Head Fundamental Research at Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers.

The government has already given some signals of addressing these shortcomings and more measures are expected.

"There is a very low base effect coming in for H2-FY20 from earnings perspective, thus the overall growth number for indices earnings could visibly be higher going ahead. However, what is important for the market is to have some signs of growth in demand, increase in government spending and private sector investments coming back at least by the end of this fiscal," Solanki said.

Experts point out that the market is forward-looking and is hoping for growth to pick up.

"The September 2019 quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be lower and that is priced by the market. The market is looking at a recovery in growth as well as earnings based on the corrective steps taken by the government," Nilesh Shah, Managing Director of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company (AMC), told CNBC-TV18 on November 26.

The market has factored in subdued GDP figures and was betting on more rate cuts and stimulus measures from the government, Amit Gupta, Co-Founder and CEO of TradingBells, said.

"Current bullish momentum is driven by global cues, as trade war tension between the US and China is easing off and global liquidity is chasing emerging markets. Other than the global cues, the market is running on hope for more stimulus packages for the economy," Gupta said.

He said technically, the Nifty is likely to head towards 12,500, where 12,350 will be intermediate resistance level, while the downside is protected at 12,000-11,950 zone. “Buy on dip trend, with one step backward and two steps forward likely to continue till the Nifty trades above 11,900 level," Gupta said.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Nishant Kumar
first published: Nov 29, 2019 10:33 am

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