We do not expect a win by Modi to move the markets up or have too much of an upside based on this news alone but a loss and upset from BJP could take the markets lower, says Nikhil Kamath of Zerodha.
By Nikhil Kamath
Ahead of Gujarat election, the BJP is going on an overdrive. The star campaigner of BJP, who is Narendra Modi, is also the only real politician to have existed in the big name in Gujarat since 2002, seems to be at the crux of this election process. All attention is focused on him.
BJP is definitely going into this election based on the popularity that Narendra Modi has seen over the last few years. There are a lot of rallies that Mr. Modi is campaigning in.
By making Modi the Centre stage, BJP is clearly looking to refocus on the contest, with its principal rival, Congress at the moment. The Congress has tended to focus on anti-incumbency, especially with BJP being in power in the state for 22 years and also, caste politics.
But, this doesn’t seem to be working as BJP still takes the lead and we believe it will go on to take this election as well.
Well, the idea to organise one public meeting for every five to six assembly constituencies was so that the prime minister is able to personally address voters of a limited area.
Modi has a direct connection with the people and this is the biggest advantage for BJP. When it comes to how it affects the market and what will happen to the frontline in this indices when the news comes out -- I think most of the jubilation which could be associated with BJP’s win has already been factored into the market and is in the prize.
We do not expect a win by Modi to move the markets up or have too much of an upside based on this news alone but a loss and upset from BJP could take the markets lower.
Because a loss for them here could mean that the next election that the majority that they hold in the center might be questioned.
Overall, we believe the news from this event will be on lines of what is being expected, BJP will win and the market will not have major reactions based on this.
Also, overall, looking at the market, we believe this inherent weakness in the market will continue and we expect the market to move lower into the 10,000 to 10,100 region in the coming expiry, i.e. the December expiry.
We would recommend staying short or no initiating fresh long at this point in time.Disclaimer: The author is Co-founder & Head of trading, Zerodha. The views and investment tips expressed by the investment expert on Moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.