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Weak rupee & global inflation is worrying FIIs about India: Gaurav Garg of CapitalVia Global Research

FIIs inflows have been muted in the last three months and cumulatively they have sold more than Rs 18,000 crores from Indian equities, says Garg.

July 25, 2021 / 01:34 PM IST
Gaurav garg

Gaurav garg

 
 
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A weaker currency and global inflation are making FIIs worried as more rate cut is unlikely to occur, Gaurav Garg, Head of Research, CapitalVia Global Research Limited said in an interview with Moneycontrol’s Kshitij Anand.

Q) What a week for Indian markets despite volatility amid weak global cues. Nifty managed to hold 15800 – what led to the price action?

A) Another week of consolidation in indices; however, the last two trading sessions were quite encouraging which led the Nifty50 to close above the 15,800 mark.

Better than expected Q1FY22 results along with strong global cues helped markets to push the index above 15,900 in the week gone by.

Positive domestic inflows also helped the index to move further as there were muted flows from foreign institutional investors.

Close

Q) What are your views on broader markets?

A) Broader indices are likely to do well in the coming week too, there are many quarterly results from this space which might lead mid-caps and small caps to 52-week highs.

There are some sectors like sugar, metals, and commodities in this space that might post good results in the coming months.

However, I believe compared to largecaps this space is likely to remain hot and stock-specific action is likely to continue.

Q) FIIs flows turned net negative in July, Domestic Institutional Investors remained net buyers. SIP flows to mutual funds is also holding up well resulting in fairly balance institutional flows. These are some of the factors holding liquidity – but what is making FIIs nervous?

A) Indeed, FIIs inflows have been muted in the last three months and cumulatively they have sold more than Rs 18,000 crores from Indian equities.

However, DIIs especially SIPs have been strong which has helped DIIs to pour more than Rs 20,000 crores.

A weaker currency is another factor and Global inflation is another concern which is making FIIs worried as more rate cut is unlikely to occur.

Q) Two IPOs will hit D-Street for subscription next week – Glenmark Life Science & Rolex Rings. Which one is a better play for long-term investment in case someone wants to invest only in one IPO?

A) Glenmark shares are available at a premium of Rs 300 in the grey market today, and I believe that Glenmark Life science IPO might give an edge over Rolex Rings.

The company specializes in developing and manufacturing Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), with a total of 120 different APIs. I think business has strong international ties with big pharma companies and exports globally.

Q) Bumper listing from Zomato last week. Zomato is much bigger than QSR industry’s combined Mcap. Do you think the gains will stay? What should investors do?

A) Rs 95-100 might be immediate support for Zomato, investors should hold Zomato for the next few years as I expect the stock to do well.

Yes, I believe that gains will stay and any dip around Rs 100 might be an opportunity to invest for the long term.

Zomato might turn out to be a success story for a new-age business; however, it would not be fair and reasonable to compare with other QSR industries especially from the point of market capitalisation.

Q) Your 3-5 trading ideas for the next 3-4 weeks?

A) Following technical trading ideas might give good returns for a period of 3-4 weeks:

Bharti Airtel: Buy| LTP: Rs 548| Target: Rs 586| Stop Loss: Rs 528|Upside 7%

The stock has witnessed a reversal from its support level placed in the zone of 525-530. The stock might gain further strength if it manages to sustain above 560.

The crossover of its short and medium-term averages on the daily charts with strong volumes showing signs of further upside.

The Relative Strength Index or the RSI has also turned positive on the daily charts, indicating limited weakness in the stock.

Solara Active Pharma Sciences Ltd: Buy| LTP: Rs 1708| Target: Rs 1790|Stop Loss Rs 1659| Upside 5 %

The stock is witnessing a Moving average convergence divergence (MACD) cross-over on the daily charts. A resistance breakout from the level of 1721 might lead to a breakout.

The stock has seen a significant addition of volumes in recent days. The risk-to-reward ratio is favorable at this juncture of time.

Poly Medicure Ltd: Buy| LTP: Rs 1005|Target: Rs 1075| Stop Loss: Rs 979| Upside 7%

The stock is forming a bullish flag pattern on the daily charts and a breakout might result for further strength which might lead the stock to break its immediate resistance level placed at 1025.

The stock has managed to sustain above its important moving average which is a positive sign for the bulls.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Kshitij Anand is the Editor Markets at Moneycontrol.

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