Trading Plan: Will Nifty decisively surpass 25,800, Bank Nifty reclaim 58,500 amid improving sentiment?

After a high of 26,104, the Nifty corrected in the last few weeks before bouncing back from close to the 50-day SMA. The bounce-back has led to the Nifty closing above the 20-day SMA.

Momentum readings like the 14-day RSI have also bounced back, indicating that momentum is picking up.

We expect more upside once the immediate resistances of 25,716–25,788 are taken out. Upside targets in this scenario are at 25,954–26,032. Our bullish view will turn wrong if the Nifty corrects and breaks the immediate support of 25,449.

Key Resistance: 25,716, 25,788

Key Support: 25,449, 25,318

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures between 25,680–25,710, with a stop-loss of 25,440, targeting 25,954–26,032.

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

Nifty has managed to protect the prior day’s low for the past two days, which keeps the short-term trend on the upside. Prices also broke above 25,660, which was the immediate hurdle, and managed to close above the same. This has turned the short-term Elliott Wave pattern and indicators to the buy side.

Prices have managed to break above the last falling segment also in faster time, thereby confirming an upside reversal as per the two-stage confirmation technique. This pullback has retraced almost 50% of the prior fall that started on October 29. The next target comes near the 25,800 level, which will be the 61.8% retracement area.

We can expect the Nifty IT sector to lead the rally this time, and we may witness rotational buying. Buying on dips will be a good opportunity. On the downside, a break below 25,440 will invalidate the above view.

Key Resistance: 25,800

Key Support: 25,440

Strategy: Use dips towards 25,620–25,640 as a buying opportunity with a target of 25,800 and a stop-loss at the 25,530 level.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

In the initial hour of trade, the Nifty index found support near the 40-DEMA at 25,421, from where it smartly recovered to close above the key 20-day SMA (middle Bollinger Band), positioned at 25,678. The index also managed to sustain above 25,524, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the September 30 low (24,587) to the October 23 high (26,104).

It now appears to be heading towards the 78.6% retracement level at 25,779. A decisive move above 25,779 could trigger further upside momentum. The daily RSI stands at 56.07, trending upward and showing improving positive momentum, despite being slightly below its signal line.

From the derivatives perspective, the weekly options data remains neutral, offering no clear directional bias. Given the short-term positive setup, traders are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips approach.

Key Resistance: 25,800, 25,950

Key Support: 25,524, 25,421

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures near the cash price of 25,600 for a target of 25,800, maintaining a stop-loss at 25,524.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Subash Gangadharan, Senior Technical Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities

Bank Nifty, too, is showing strength after correcting recently. The index has bounced back from the 20-day SMA after the recent correction and is now headed higher.

With momentum indicators like the 14-day RSI also bouncing back, the index could rise further.

Key Resistance: 58,248, 58,578

Key Support: 57,594, 57,157

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at around 58,151, with a stop-loss of 57,500, targeting 58,900.

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

Over the past three sessions, Bank Nifty has been forming higher highs while consistently protecting prior days’ lows on a closing basis, indicating sustained buying interest from lower levels. Despite this strength, the index continues to consolidate within a broader range of 57,200–58,500 for the past 12–13 trading sessions.

In the previous session, the index found support at the mid Bollinger Bands and reversed on the upside. In this rebound, private banks were the major participants. On the daily chart, the index is forming a Flag and Pole pattern. A break above 58,250 can result in a breakout of the pattern, which can lead to a sharp rally to the prior swing high near 58,500, followed by the formation of fresh highs. On the downside, 57,690 is the nearest support.

Key Resistance: 58,650

Key Support: 57,690

Strategy: Long positions can be created above 58,250 with a stop-loss of 58,000 and a target of 58,500 followed by 58,650 levels.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

Bank Nifty witnessed selling pressure during the initial hour of trade but staged a smart recovery intraday, finding support around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the September 29 low (54,226) to the October 23 high (58,577). The index also reclaimed the 20-SMA (57,741), which coincides with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, providing additional support.

On the upside, immediate resistance is placed near 58,300, followed by the all-time high of 58,577. A sustained move above this zone could open the door for further upside momentum and continuation of the prevailing bullish trend. The daily RSI stands at 62.95, trending upward and indicating improving positive momentum, though it remains marginally below its signal line.

From a derivatives standpoint, weekly options data reflects a neutral bias, offering no clear directional cue. Nevertheless, the broader market structure remains constructive, and traders are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips approach.

Key Resistance: 58,300, 58,577

Key Support: 57,741, 57,600

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near the cash price of 57,900 for a target of 58,300 followed by 58,577, with a stop-loss of 57,741.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.