Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty defend Thursday’s low on Bihar election results day?

Nifty Trading Plan for November 14

The Nifty 50 saw indecisive chart formation and closed flat on November 13, possibly due to caution ahead of the Bihar election results scheduled on November 14. If the Nifty 50 manages to hold above 25,800 (Thursday’s low) in the upcoming sessions, the 26,000–26,100 levels are the ones to watch. However, below this level, 25,700–25,500 remains the immediate key support zone. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to defend 58,100–58,000 for a move beyond 58,600 (record high); below this, 57,800 can be tested, followed by 57,600 (20 DEMA) as key support, according to experts.

On November 13, the Nifty 50 rose 3.4 points to 25,879, while the Bank Nifty gained 107 points to 58,382. Market breadth was in favour of bears as about 1,648 shares were down compared to 1,188 shares that saw buying interest on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

The Nifty index remained volatile ahead of the Bihar Assembly election outcome but extended gains for the fourth straight session, reflecting continued accumulation at lower levels. Despite facing rejection near 26,000, the index held firm above the 25,700–25,800 support zone, maintaining a short-term bullish tone.

Technical indicators show resilience, with the RSI above 60 and price action sustaining above key moving averages. In the derivatives segment, strong Put writing at 25,800 and Call buildup at 26,000 define a tight trading band. Until a breakout on either side occurs, traders should adopt a “range-trading” strategy for directional opportunity.

Key Resistance: 26,000, 26,150, 26,250

Key Support: 25,800, 25,700, 25,500

Strategy: Traders may consider initiating a Long Straddle strategy for the November 18 expiry by buying one lot of 25,900 Call (CE) at Rs 142 and one lot of 25,900 Put (PE) at Rs 133.

This setup is designed to capture a potential sharp move in either direction on the day of a major event. The strategy is strictly meant for intraday trading on November 14, and all positions should be closed within the same trading session to effectively manage risk.

Stop-Loss: Hold this strategy strictly for intraday purposes, with the maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) loss capped at Rs 8,000 to ensure disciplined risk management.

Target: Hold this strategy strictly for intraday purposes, aiming for a maximum MTM profit target of Rs 15,000, while one can consider booking profits once MTM gains exceed Rs 8,000.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

Nifty staged a sharp rebound from its 50-day EMA on November 7, advancing from 25,318 toward 26,000. However, in the latest session, some profit booking was witnessed from higher levels of 26,000, resulting in a Doji candlestick that signals market indecision. If the price sustains below the low of the Doji candle, more selling can be seen in the short term.

From a medium-term perspective, the index continues to hold above key EMAs with upward slopes, sustaining a positive bias—yet a decisive close above 26,105 is essential for fresh momentum, potentially targeting 26,250, 26,500, and 26,800. Bullish momentum indicators provide confirmation. Structural support at 25,160 remains critical.

Key Resistance: 26,000, 26,105, 26,280

Key Support: 25,700, 25,500, 25,320

Strategy: Accumulate Nifty Futures on dips at 25,700 and 25,500, with a stop-loss at 25,320; or initiate longs on a confirmed break above 26,105.

Amruta Shinde, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

The Nifty 50 is now hovering near the 25,900–26,000 zone, close to its all-time high, suggesting that bulls are still eyeing further upside momentum.

Going forward, immediate resistance is seen around 25,900–26,100, and a sustained move above these levels could open the gates for a rally toward 26,250 in the near term.

On the downside, support is placed at 25,700, followed by 25,500. As long as the index trades above 25,800, a “buy-on-dips” strategy remains advisable.

Key Resistance: 25,900, 26,100

Key Support: 25,500, 25,700

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 25,900 levels for a target of 26,200–26,300, with a stop-loss of 25,700 on a closing basis.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

Bank Nifty hit a fresh record high before witnessing sharp volatility ahead of the Bihar Assembly election outcome. Despite intraday swings, the index continues to hold firm above the 58,000–57,800 support zone, indicating persistent accumulation and strong buying interest on dips. While rejection near 58,600 highlights stiff resistance, the broader structure remains constructive as the index trades comfortably above its key moving averages.

Derivatives data reflects a balanced yet bullish tone, with heavy Call writing at 58,500 and a firm Put base at 58,000. Until the 57,800–58,600 range is decisively breached, traders are advised to follow a range-trading strategy.

Key Resistance: 58,600, 58,900, 59,200

Key Support: 58,000, 57,800, 57,500

Strategy: Traders may consider initiating a Long Straddle strategy for the November 25 expiry by buying one lot of 58,500 Call (CE) at Rs 521 and one lot of 58,500 Put (PE) at Rs 477.

This setup is designed to capture a potential sharp move in either direction on the day of a major event. The strategy is strictly meant for intraday trading on November 14, and all positions should be closed within the same trading session to effectively manage risk.

Stop-Loss: Hold this strategy strictly for intraday purposes, with the maximum MTM loss capped at Rs 8,000 to ensure disciplined risk management.

Target: Hold this strategy strictly for intraday purposes, aiming for a maximum MTM profit target of Rs 15,000, while considering booking profits once MTM gains exceed Rs 8,000.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

Bank Nifty encountered profit-taking in the latter part of the latest session, yet its structure endures with notable relative strength. Positioned above upward-sloping key EMAs, it emerged from a bullish continuation pattern on Wednesday—albeit with a subdued candle (open near high, close near low).

The recent session briefly topped Wednesday's high but couldn't sustain, meeting resistance and booking near 58,580. For lasting upside, a solid break and hold above 58,580 is required, paving the way to 59,000, 59,500, and further. Momentum indicators endorse a positive tilt. Structural support at 56,700 anchors the downside.

Key Resistance: 58,580, 58,900

Key Support: 57,900, 57,500, 57,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips at 58,000 and 57,800, with a stop-loss at 57,550; or enter longs conservatively above 58,580.

Amruta Shinde, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

On the daily chart, the Bank Nifty index formed a bullish candle with an upper wick, reflecting that while profit booking was visible at higher levels, buyers maintained control, indicating underlying bullish strength. The index also surpassed its previous all-time high on an intraday basis and closed in the green, suggesting continued bullish sentiment among market participants.

Going forward, immediate resistance is placed around 58,500–58,600, and a sustained move above these levels could propel the index toward 59,000 in the near term. On the downside, key support is seen around 58,200, followed by 58,000. As long as the index trades above 58,000, a “buy-on-dips” strategy remains advisable.

Key Resistance: 58,500, 58,600

Key Support: 58,200, 58,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near 58,200 levels for a target of 58,800–59,000, with a stop-loss of 58,000 on a closing basis.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.