The market ended a volatile session on a positive note on January 30 after a day of carnage, backed by technology and select banking & financial services stocks. Overall the market remains cautious ahead of Union Budget and FOMC meeting outcome later this week.
The BSE Sensex climbed 170 points to 59,500, while the Nifty50 rose 45 points to 17,649 and formed a bullish candle on the daily charts with upper and lower shadows indicating high volatility in the market. The index has defended 50 WEMA (17,400) as well as 200 DEMA (17,550), which can be crucial support going forward.
"The Nifty sustained above the important support of 200-day EMA (exponential moving average) at 17,550 level in the last two sessions, after violating below it. The said moving average has offered important supports and resistances in the past and that has resulted in a substantial movement on either side," Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities said.
Shetti says a sustainable move above 17,800 is expected to confirm the trend reversal on the upside. The Union Budget on February 1 is going to set a fresh direction for the market in the short term, the market expert said.
The broader markets remained under pressure with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices falling marginally on weak breadth.
We have collated 15 data points to help you spot profitable trades:
Note: The open interest (OI) and volume data of stocks in this article are the aggregates of three-month data, and not just of the current month.
Key support and resistance levels on the Nifty
As per the pivot charts, we have the key support level for the Nifty at 17,472, followed by 17,400, and 17,284. If the index moves up, the key resistance levels to watch out for are 17,704, followed by 17,776 and 17,892.
The Nifty Bank also ended moderately higher by 42 points at 40,388, and formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily charts with upper and lower shadow indicating high volatility during the day.
The important pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 39,676, followed by 39,352, and 38,829. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 40,722, followed by 41,045, and 41,569.
On the weekly basis, we have seen the maximum Call open interest (OI) at 18,000 strike, with 89.84 lakh contracts, which can be a crucial resistance level in the February series.
This is followed by 19,000 strike, comprising 80.19 lakh contracts, and 18,200 strike, where we have more than 59.52 lakh contracts.
Call writing was seen at 18,500 strike, which added 18.09 lakh contracts, followed by 17,800 strike, which added 10.7 lakh contracts, and 18,400 strike, which added 6.37 lakh contracts.
We have seen Call unwinding in deep OTM strikes like 19,000 strike, which shed 9.91 lakh contracts, followed by 18,700 strike, which shed 3.18 lakh contracts, and 18,900 strike, which shed 1.79 lakh contracts.
On the weekly basis, the maximum Put OI was seen at 17,000 strike, with 47.79 lakh contracts, which can be a crucial support level for the February series.
This is followed by the 16,500 strike, comprising 42.6 lakh contracts, and 17,500 strike, where we have 31.99 lakh contracts.
Put writing was seen at 16,500 strike, which added 8.17 lakh contracts, followed by 17,500 strike, which added 7.5 lakh contracts, and 16,700 strike which added 5.5 lakh contracts.
Put unwinding was seen at 17,900 strike, which shed 5.21 lakh contracts, followed by 18,000 strike, which shed 2.39 lakh contracts, and 17,800 strike, which shed 2.27 lakh contracts.
Stocks with a high delivery percentage
A high delivery percentage suggests that investors are showing interest in these stocks. We have seen the highest delivery in Shriram Transport Finance, PI Industries, Max Financial Services, Apollo Hospitals and HCL Technologies, among others.
An increase in open interest (OI), along with an increase in price, mostly indicates a build-up of long positions. Based on the OI percentage, we have seen a long build-up in 66 stocks including Coal India, NTPC, Adani Enterprises, PI Industries, and ICICI Bank.
A decline in OI, along with a decrease in price, mostly indicates long unwinding. Based on the OI percentage, 15 stocks saw long unwinding on January 30, including RBL Bank, Nestle India, Max Financial Services, NMDC, and Adani Ports.
An increase in OI, along with a decrease in price, mostly indicates a build-up of short positions. Based on the OI percentage, we have seen a short build-up in 56 stocks including State Bank of India, Power Grid Corporation of India, Syngene International, Exide Industries, and IndusInd Bank.
56 stocks witnessed short-covering
A decrease in OI, along with an increase in price, mostly indicates a short-covering. Based on the OI percentage, 56 stocks were on the short-covering list, including Maruti Suzuki India, Ambuja Cements, Cummins India, REC, and UltraTech Cement.
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Coal India, Power Grid Corporation of India, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, UPL, ACC, BASF India, Blue Star, Edelweiss Financial Services, Great Eastern Shipping, Godrej Consumer Products, Indian Hotels, Indian Oil Corporation, Jindal Steel & Power, KEC International, KPIT Technologies, Max Financial Services, MOIL, RailTel Corporation of India, Spandana Sphoorty Financial, Star Health, and TTK Prestige will be in focus ahead of quarterly earnings on January 31.
Stocks in the news
Larsen & Toubro: The infrastructure major has reported a robust 24 percent year-on-year growth in consolidated profit at Rs 2,553 crore despite weak operating margin performance. Consolidated revenues at Rs 46,390 crore for the quarter grew by 17 percent YoY aided by improved execution in the infrastructure projects segment and continued growth momentum in the IT&TS portfolio. The company received orders worth Rs 60,710 crore during the quarter, a 21 percent YoY growth, taking the consolidated order book to Rs 3.86 lakh crore as of December FY23.
Tech Mahindra: The IT services company has clocked a 0.9 percent sequential growth in consolidated profit at Rs 1,297 crore for quarter ended December FY23, with revenue rising 4.6 percent QoQ to Rs 13,735 crore, beating analysts' estimates. Revenue in dollar terms grew by 1.8 percent QoQ to $1,668 million with constant currency revenue growth at 0.2 percent. Operating numbers were ahead of expectations while deal wins at $795 million for the quarter.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation: The state-owned oil retailer clocked a standalone profit of Rs 1,960 crore for December FY23 quarter against a loss of Rs 304.2 crore in the previous quarter, with strong operating performance amid a fall in oil prices. Revenue grew by nearly 4 percent sequentially to Rs 1.19 lakh crore.
REC: The power projects finance company has recorded a 4 percent year-on-year growth in standalone profit at Rs 2,878 crore for quarter ended December FY23, with a weak topline. Standalone revenue from operations at Rs 9,695 crore fell by 3.1 percent compared to the year-ago period.
IIFL Finance: The company has clocked a massive 37 percent year-on-year growth in profit at Rs 423.2 crore for the quarter ended December FY23, with revenue from operations rising 18 percent YoY to Rs 2,121 crore for the quarter. Pre-provision operating profit at Rs 773 crore grew by 26 percent YoY. Overall core loan portfolio grew by 26 percent YoY, but the non-core (primarily construction and real estate finance) portfolio shrunk by 7 percent. Asset quality improved with gross non-performing assets (NPA) falling 30 bps QoQ to 2.1 percent and net NPA declining 10 bps QoQ to 1.1 percent for the quarter.
Adani Enterprises: International Holding Company, the diversified Abu Dhabi-based conglomerate, will be investing $400 million in Adani Enterprises' further public offering (FPO), through its subsidiary Green Transmission Investment Holding RSC Limited. The Rs 20,000 crore FPO was subscribed 3 percent on the second day of bidding.
KEC International: The infrastructure EPC major and an RPG Group company secured new orders of Rs 1,131 crore across various businesses including transmission and distribution, and civil segment. With these orders, the YTD order intake stands at over Rs 15,500 crore, a growth of 10 percent YoY.
Fund Flow
Foreign institutional investors (FII) have net-sold shares worth Rs 6,792.80 crore, the highest ever outflow in a single day since March 8, 2022, whereas domestic institutional investors (DII) have net-bought shares worth Rs 5,512.63 crore on January 30, as per provisional data available on the NSE.
Stocks under F&O ban on NSE
The National Stock Exchange has retained Ambuja Cements on its F&O ban list for January 31. Securities thus banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts have crossed 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.
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