Sahaj Agrawal of Kotak Securities expects volatility to remain high for the near term.
Rising crude oil prices and worries over June quarter earnings pulled the market lower on July 10. The Nifty 50 ended a tad below 11,500 level, for the first time since May 17, 2019.
Experts expect some consolidation to continue at current levels as long as the index holds 11,450 levels, before seeing a strong bounce back.
The BSE Sensex was down 173.78 points at 38,557.04 while the Nifty50 fell 57 points to 11,498.90 and formed bearish candle on daily charts as bears are holding a tight grip in the market.
"11,450 remains a critical level for the index, Expect some consolidation around current levels before the index gives a bounce back towards previous highs. A breach of 11,450 is expected to invite further selling pressure pushing the index towards 11,000-11,100," Sahaj Agrawal, Head of Derivatives, Kotak securities told Moneycontrol.
He expects volatility to remain high for the near term with private banking stocks expected to outperform and some buying interest seen in the defensive space.
Chandan Taparia, Associate Vice President | Analyst-Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said until Nifty holds below 11,600-zone it could drift towards the next major support of 11,420 level while on the upside hurdles are seen at 11,720 and then 11,777 zones.
The broader markets fell more than frontliner indices as the Nifty Midcap index declined 1 percent and Smallcap index slipped 0.7 percent. About two shares declined for every share rising on the NSE.
All sectoral indices closed in red with Nifty Auto, Metal, PSU Bank and Realty falling more than a percent each.
We have collated 15 data points to help you spot profitable trades:
Key support and resistance level for Nifty
Nifty closed at 11,498.90 on July 10. According to Pivot charts, the key support level is placed at 11,451.83, followed by 11,404.77. If the index starts moving upward, the key resistance levels to watch out are 11,569.83 and 11,640.77.
Nifty Bank closed at 30,522.10, down 47.05 points on July 10. The important Pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 30,391.03, followed by 30,259.96. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 30,690.73, followed by 30,859.37.
Call options data
Maximum Call open interest (OI) of 32.28 lakh contracts was seen at the 12,000 strike price. It will act as a crucial resistance level for the July series.
This is followed by 11,800 strike price, which now holds 17.95 lakh contracts in open interest, and 11,900, which has accumulated 16.68 lakh contracts in open interest.
Significant Call writing was seen at 11,600 strike price, which added 3.95 lakh contracts, followed by an 11,500 strike price which added 3.43 lakh contracts and 11,700 strike that added 2.73 lakh contracts.
Call unwinding was seen at 12,200 strike, which shed 0.82 lakh contracts.
Put options data
Maximum Put open interest of 20.67 lakh contracts was seen at 11,300 strike price. It will act as a crucial support level for the July series.
This was followed by 11,500 strike price, which now holds 19.02 lakh contracts in open interest and 11,000 strike price, which has now accumulated 16.29 lakh contracts in open interest.
Put writing was seen at 11,300 strike price, which added 3.15 lakh contracts, followed by 11,500 strike price that added 1.8 lakh contracts and 11,000 strike, which added 1.33 lakh contracts.
Put unwinding was seen at the 11,700 strike, which shed 1.18 lakh contracts, followed by 11,900 strike that shed 0.68 lakh contracts and 11,800 strike which shed 0.22 lakh contracts.
Stocks with a high delivery percentage
High delivery percentage suggests that investors are accepting the delivery of the stock, which means that investors are bullish on it.
16 stocks saw a long buildup
27 stocks that saw short covering
A decrease in open interest, along with an increase in price, mostly indicates short covering.
78 stocks saw a short build-up
An increase in open interest, along with a decrease in price, mostly indicates a build-up of short positions.
42 stocks saw long unwinding
Analyst or Board Meetings/Briefings
Pricol: Company is scheduled to announce June quarter earnings on August 12.
Premier Explosives: Company is scheduled to announce June quarter earnings on August 10.
Bharat Electronics: Company is scheduled to announce June quarter earnings on July 29.
Tejas Networks: Company is scheduled to announce June quarter earnings on July 24.
Wipro: Company is scheduled to announce June quarter earnings on July 17.
Linc Pen: Company's representative would be attending the Looking East Conference at Kolkata organized by Spark Capital on July 12.
Matrimony.com: Annual General Meeting is scheduled on August 7.
Stocks in news
Results on July 11: CCL Products, Den Networks
Aurobindo Pharma: Company launched generic of Sensipar tablets in the US.
Piramal Enterprises: Board approves raising up to Rs 1,500 crore via NCDs.
Greaves Cotton: Company acquired 15,04,523 shares, by way of investment in a subsidiary of the company i.e. Ampere Vehicles Private Limited, India through primary and secondary purchase for a total consideration of Rs 22.5 crore. Consequent to the acquisition of aforesaid additional stake, the company's holding in Ampere increased from 67.34 percent to 72.11 percent.
TCS: iON, a strategic unit of the company, collaborated with All India Council for Technical Education (AICTE) to equip students with career skills.
Mohota Industries: Brickwork Ratings has downgraded the rating assigned to long term credit facilities availed by the company to BBB from BBB+ and short term credit facilities to A3+ from A2.
The New India Assurance Company: PV Thomas, Chief Manager has been nominated as the Chief of Internal Audit and Principal Compliance Officer for anti-money laundering guidelines of the company.
RTS Power Corporation: Company proposed to set up its new factory at its land at Parasrampura, Rajasthan for the manufacturing of steel wires and strips, galvanized and non-galvanized and other downstream products made out of steel wires and strips, galvanized and non-galvanized of the capacity of 12000 MT per annum.
Punjab Chemicals & Crop Protection: There was a fire accident at one section of Agro Chemical Division, Derabassi, Mohali.
IFCI: Brickwork downgraded the rating on long term debt instruments NCD/bonds to BBB+ with a negative outlook, from A- with a stable outlook.
GTPL Hathway Q1: Consolidated profit jumps to Rs 29.45 crore versus Rs 13.37 crore; revenue rises to Rs 445.5 crore versus Rs 296.9 crore YoY.
Himachal Futuristic Communications Q1: Profit rises 148 percent to Rs 117 crore versus Rs 47 crore; revenue jumps 23 percent to Rs 1,343 crore versus Rs 1,088 crore YoY.
Premier Explosives: Company received an order from Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) for the supply of solid propellants for Medium Range Surface to Air Missile (MRSAM) for a value of Rs 14.99 crore to be executed within a period of 14 months.
Mahindra Logistics: Company appointed Rampraveen Swaminathan as CEO.
TVS Motor Company: Company launched new 100cc motorcycle, TVS Sport in Sri Lanka.
Insilco: Plant operations will restart as per schedule on July 10.
Prime Customer Services: SMERA has assigned the highest rating to the company as MSE Rating -1 which indicates the highest creditworthiness in relation to other MSEs.
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FII & DII data
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 604.94 crore, but Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought Rs 667.4 crore worth of shares in the Indian equity market on July 10, as per provisional data available on the NSE.
Fund Flow Picture
Four stocks under F&O ban period on NSE
For July 11, DHFL, IDBI Bank, Reliance Capital and Reliance Infrastructure are under the F&O ban period.Securities in ban period under the F&O segment include companies in which security has crossed 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.