The Nifty 50 closed just below 25,600 with a loss of six-tenths of a percent on November 4. Given the index falling below short-term moving averages and momentum indicators turning weak, short-term consolidation and range-bound trading cannot be ruled out. However, the medium-term trend remains positive. According to experts, if the index sustains below 25,600, the 25,500–25,400 levels will be key support zones to watch. On the upside, resistance may be faced at the 25,750–25,800 levels, above which 25,600 could be possible.
Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:
1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (25,598)
Resistance based on pivot points: 25,734, 25,784, and 25,863
Support based on pivot points: 25,575, 25,525, and 25,445
Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a long bearish candle on the daily charts, continuing the lower high-lower low structure with above-average volume. The index dropped below the 10 and 20-day EMAs but still held above the 50 and 100-day EMAs. The RSI fell to 52.76, showing a bearish crossover, while the MACD turned negative with a crossover and the histogram dropped below the zero line. All of this indicates a weakening short-term trend.
2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (57,827)
Resistance based on pivot points: 58,041, 58,132, and 58,280
Support based on pivot points: 57,745, 57,654, and 57,506
Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 58,735, 60,142
Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 57,394, 56,662
Special Formation: The Bank Nifty formed a bearish candle with upper and lower shadows within the previous day's range, indicating an inside bar pattern, while sustaining above short- and medium-term moving averages. The RSI fell to 60.75, continuing its negative crossover, while the histogram remained below the zero line, with a bearish crossover in the MACD. All of this suggests a bearish outlook for the short-term.
According to the weekly options data, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 77.47 lakh contracts). This level can act as a key resistance for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,800 strike (52.01 lakh contracts) and 26,500 strike (48.88 lakh contracts).
Maximum Call writing was observed at the 26,000 strike, which saw an addition of 42.33 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,700 and 25,800 strikes, which added 36.42 lakh and 31.93 lakh contracts, respectively. There was hardly any Call unwinding seen in the 25,000-26,500 strike band.
On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 25,000 strike (with 60.53 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty. It was followed by the 25,200 strike (51.99 lakh contracts) and the 25,250 strike (36.07 lakh contracts).
The maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,200 strike, which saw an addition of 39.94 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,000 and 25,250 strikes, which added 32.74 lakh and 32.49 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 25,850 strike, which shed 78,750 contracts, followed by the 26,200 and 25,950 strikes, which shed 40,425 and 27,000 contracts, respectively.
5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data
According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 58,000 strike, with 12.82 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 60,000 strike (11.05 lakh contracts) and the 58,500 strike (9.79 lakh contracts).
Maximum Call writing was observed at the 58,000 strike (with the addition of 2.05 lakh contracts), followed by the 59,500 strike (1.35 lakh contracts) and 60,000 strike (1.23 lakh contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 57,000 strike, which shed 64,575 contracts, followed by the 59,900 and 58,400 strikes, which shed 7,560 and 5,880 contracts, respectively.
6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data
On the Put side, the 58,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 17.16 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index. This was followed by the 57,000 strike (12.6 lakh contracts) and the 57,500 strike (5.07 lakh contracts).
The maximum Put writing was placed at the 58,200 strike (which added 12,880 contracts), followed by the 56,300 strike (12,425 contracts) and the 56,400 strike (11,550 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 58,000 strike which shed 1.33 lakh contracts, followed by the 58,100 and 57,700 strikes, which shed 63,840 and 48,510 contracts, respectively.
The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, jumped to 0.93 on November 4, compared to 0.78 in the previous session.
The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.
9) India VIX
The India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, faced resistance near the 13 level (which coincides with the 200-day EMA) but failed to sustain this level on closing basis for another session. The VIX remained above short- and medium-term moving averages, which indicates caution for bulls. It fell by 0.1 percent to 12.65 on Tuesday.
A long build-up was seen in 21 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.
11) Long Unwinding (73 Stocks)
73 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.
12) Short Build-up (98 Stocks)
98 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.
13) Short-Covering (22 Stocks)
22 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.
Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.
Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.
Stocks added to F&O ban: Nil
Stocks retained in F&O ban: Nil
Stocks removed from F&O ban: Nil
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