A series of events like state election results, US Fed policy and UK parliament vote on modalities of Brexit will play a crucial role in determining major swings in the market.
The market snapped a three-day losing streak amid volatility on December 7, with the Nifty 50 closing near 10,700 levels amid caution ahead of the assembly elections results of five states scheduled to be announced on December 11. The recovery in global peers also led the benchmark indices trading higher.
Experts expect volatility to continue in the coming sessions as exit polls indicated mixed results in key states including Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Hence, 10,750 is expected to remain a crucial level to watch out for.
"Investors should stay cautious ahead of state elections' outcome, domestic and global macroeconomic data and crude oil price movement next week. The five state election results on Tuesday will be crucial for the general elections in 2019," Rahul Sharma, Senior Research Analyst, Equity99 told Moneycontrol.
The Nifty 50 closed 92.50 points higher at 10,693.70 on December 7, but lost 1.7 percent in the week gone by.
The index formed a bullish candle which resembles an 'Inside Bar' kind of pattern on the daily charts and bearish candle on the weekly chart.
An inside bar pattern is formed when the index trades within the high and low range of the previous day (Thursday). It is a two candlestick price pattern.
"Although Nifty has been making lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart for the last five days signaling bears having an upper hand, the benchmark index is still trading above crucial support levels," Shabbir Kayyumi, Head - Technical & Derivative Research at Narnolia Financial Advisors told Moneycontrol.
He added that the Nifty is trading in a broader rising wedge pattern on daily time frame; lower trend line of the wedge comes around 10,578 and upper trend line is near 11,055. And that remains the near-term trading range for the market.
However, as the market is awaiting a series of events to unfold like state election results, US Fed policy and UK parliament vote on modalities of Brexit, these market views would remain susceptible to major swings based on the news, he added.
India VIX fell by 3.37 percent to 18.65 levels on December 7.
We have collated top 15 data points to help you spot profitable trades:
Key support and resistance level for Nifty
The Nifty closed at 10,693.7 on December 7. According to Pivot charts, the key support level is placed at 10,627.17, followed by 10,560.63. If the index starts moving upward, key resistance levels to watch out are 10,732.37 and then 10,771.03.
The Nifty Bank index closed at 26,594.30, up 396 points on December 7. The important Pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 26,344.36, followed by 26,094.43. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 26,751.96, followed by 26,909.63.
Call Options Data
Maximum Call open interest (OI) of 37.13 lakh contracts was seen at the 11,000 strike price. This will act as a crucial resistance level for the December series.
This was followed by the 11,200 strike price, which now holds 24.44 lakh contracts in open interest, and 11,100, which has accumulated 23.12 lakh contracts in open interest.
Meaningful Call writing was seen at 11,200, which added 5.13 lakh contracts, followed by 11,100 strike which added 3.08 lakh contracts, and 10,800 strike which added 2.71 lakh contracts.
Call unwinding was seen at 11,000 strike which shed 3.84 lakh contracts, followed by 10,700 strike which shed 3.06 lakh contracts and 10,900 which shed 2.06 lakh contracts.
Put Options data
Maximum Put open interest of 37.46 lakh contracts was seen at the 10,200 strike price. This will act as a crucial support level for the December series.
This was followed by the 10,500 strike price, which now holds 35.44 lakh contracts in open interest, and the 10,700 strike price, which has now accumulated 25.93 lakh contracts in open interest.
Put writing was seen at the strike price of 10,500, which added 4.89 lakh contracts, followed by 10,300 strike which added 4.67 lakh contracts, and 10,600 which added 4.62 lakh contracts.
Put unwinding was seen at the strike of 10,900, which shed 1.88 lakh contracts, followed by 10,700 which shed 0.92 lakh contracts and 11,000 which shed 0.79 lakh contracts.
FII & DII data
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 817.4 crore while Domestic Institutional Investors bought Rs 242.56 crore worth of shares in the Indian equity market on December 7, as per provisional data available on the NSE.
Fund Flow Picture
Stocks with high delivery percentage
High delivery percentage suggests that investors are accepting delivery of the stock, which means that investors are bullish on it.
61 stocks saw a long buildup
63 stocks saw short covering
A decrease in open interest along with an increase in price mostly indicates short covering.
47 stocks saw a short build-up
An increase in open interest along with a decrease in price mostly indicates a build-up of short positions.
31 stocks saw long unwinding
Bulk Deals on December 7
Punj Lloyd: IFCI further sold 23,67,024 equity shares of the company at Rs 4.52 per share on the NSE.
Texmaco Rail: Aequitas Investment Consultancy Private Limited - PMS purchased 34,04,200 shares of the company at Rs 51 per share. However, Equity Intelligence India sold 17,80,364 shares at Rs 51.01 per share and Equity Intelligence India Private Limited [PMS] sold 11,45,241 shares at Rs 51.02 per share.
(For more bulk deals, click here)
Analyst or Board Meet/Briefings
Sandhar Technologies: Company's officials will be meeting SPA Capital Services on December 11.
Gopal Iron & Steels: Board meeting is scheduled on December 15 to consider sale of asset of the company.
Gallantt Metal: Extraordinary General Meeting to be held on January 4, 2019.
Asian Granito India: Extraordinary General Meeting will be held on January 3, 2019.
Indian Oil Corporation: Board meeting is scheduled on December 13 to consider buyback of the fully paid-up equity shares of the company and declaration of interim dividend for the financial year 2018-19.
Titan Company: Company's officials will be meeting fund houses or insurance firms on December 10, 12 and 14.
Shriram City Union Finance: Company's officials will be meeting analysts/institutional investors/brokers on December 10, 11, 12 and 13.
Infosys: Mohit Joshi - President & Head, Banking, Financial Services & Insurance (BFSI), Healthcare and Life Sciences; Head Infosys Brazil and Infosys Mexico and Jayesh Sanghrajka - Interim CFO will participate in a Non-Deal Roadshow in London on December 10 and 11.
Globus Spirits: Company's officials will be meeting LIC Mutual Fund, New Horizon Investments, ICICI Prudential Asset Management, Edelweiss Securities on December 10.
IIFL Holdings: Company's officials will be meeting Southeastern Asset Management on December 10.
HEG: Few Analysts/Investors are visiting the company's plant at Mandideep, Madhya Pradesh on December 10.
Bhansali Engineering Polymers: Jayesh Bhansali - Executive Director cum CFO of the company would meet the analyst/Institutional investor(s) in a conference arranged by Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd., on December 10.
Supreme Infrastructure India: 35th Annual General Meeting of the company is scheduled to be held on December 31.
Lesha Industries: Board meeting is scheduled on December 26 to consider the sub division/ split of equity shares of the company.
Alembic Pharmaceuticals: Meeting of the NCD Committee of the Company will be held on December 14 to consider the issue and allotment of Unsecured Listed Redeemable Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs) of upto Rs 350 crore on private placement basis.
Punjab & Sind Bank: Board meeting is scheduled to be held on December 12 to consider issue of equity shares by way of QIP upto an amount of Rs 500 crore.
Finolex Industries: Company's officials will be meeting Ventura Securities on December 10.
PPAP Automotive: Company's officials will be attending conference of analysts and investors organised by Ambit Capital on December 10.
Shoppers Stop: Company's officials will be meeting Martin Lau, Managing Partner and Vinay Agarwal, Director of First State Stewart Asia, on December 11; Anand Shah, Sr. VP Consumer of Axis Capital - Institutional Equities on December 12, Nikhil Desai and Rushabh Sheth, Directors of Karma Capital, Harsh Shah of CGS-CIMB Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. on December 12.
Panyam Cements & Mineral Industries: 62nd Annual General Meeting of the company is to be held on December 31.
RCL Retail: Eighth Annual General Meeting of the company is scheduled to be held on December 29.
Stocks in news
Axis Bank: Board appointed Amitabh Chaudhry as an Additional Director of the bank and to hold office as such till the conclusion of the ensuing Annual General Meeting and as the Managing Director & CEO of the bank, for a period of 3 years, with effect from January 1, 2019. Board approved the reappointment of Samir Barua, Som Mittal and Rohit Bhagat as Independent Directors of the bank for their second consecutive term from April 1, 2019 upto the expiry of their respective tenure of 8 years.
Ashoka Buildcon: Company received Letter of Acceptance by Rail Vikas Nigam Limited, for the project in connection with 3rd Line from Sonnagar to Garhwa Road in Dhanbad Division of East Central Railway, Bihar and Jharkhand in 2 packages. The aggregate accepted bid value of the project is Rs 794.20 crore.
Escorts: Company has executed the business transfer agreement for transferring the existing RT crane business of the company as a going concern on a slump sale basis to the JV (with Tadano Limited, Japan) for an amount not exceeding Rs 35 crore.
United Breweries: Steven Bosch, Director and Chief Financial Officer of the company tendered resignation.
Mangalam Drugs & Organics: Unit-1 facility was recently inspected by WHO prequalification team and the company has received the WHO Pre-qualification approval for Unit-1.
IL&FS Engineering and Construction Company: Ganapathi Ramachandran, Non-Executive Independent Director of the company tendered resignation from the directorship of the company.
Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers: ICRA reaffirmed A (Negative) rating for fund based term loan worth Rs 1,858 crore.
IFCI Q2: Standalone loss at Rs 16.55 crore versus loss at Rs 293.65 crore; revenue at Rs 432.94 crore versus Rs 763.50 crore YoY.
Brigade Enterprises: Brigade Group announces the launch of Parkside- Independent living for seniors, across Bangalore.
Essel Propack: Company issued commercial papers for Rs 50 crore.
Seamec: Company entered into a Charter Party with Supreme Hydro Engineering Pvt Ltd for charter hire of vessel 'Seamec Princess' for working at Mumbai High Offshore. The tenure of the contract is for a firm period of 150 days with option for extension. The value of Charter during firm period is $3.08 million.
VXL Instruments: Board appointed Kishan S Rao as the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of the company.
Pritish Nandy Communications: Company announced the launch of the first season of its 10 episode Amazon Original show 'Four More Shots Please' to be streamed on Amazon Prime from January 25 2019.
Arrow Greentech: Subsidiary Avery Pharmaceuticals Private Limited (Arrow Rx) received an approval for site plan to manufacture Mouth Dissolving Strips from Food & Drugs Control Administration (FDA}.
Uflex: Company has entered into an agreement to acquire 100 percent shares of Flex Chemicals Private Limited, Russia.
Capital India Finance: Board approved the issue of upto 3,45,48,560 equity shares at an issue price of Rs 72 per share, on rights basis, aggregating up to Rs 248.75 crore; and fixed rights entitlement ratio at 4:5.
Precision Camshafts: Mahesh A Kulkarni, Company Secretary and Compliance officer of the company has resigned from the company.
Pritika Auto Industries: Board approved to increase in the limit of investment by foreign institutional investors (FIls) and non resident individuals (NRIs') in the company's equity share capital.
No stock under ban period on NSE
Securities in ban period for the next day's trade under the F&O segment include companies in which the security has crossed 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.For December 10, 2018, not a single stock is present in this list.