To increase the effectiveness of monetary policy, it is imperative to reduce the term premium.
Despite the 135bps rate cut delivered by the RBI in the current easing cycle, the sovereign yield curve continues to be steep. This is an impediment to transmission. Since the Indian sovereign curve is not very active across maturities, the 10-year benchmark bond plays a crucial role. The yield on the 10-year determines the borrowing cost for states and corporates.
With concerns of fiscal slippage, bonds have not rallied despite the rate cuts. The challenge for the central bank therefore is to flatten the yield curve to ensure transmission. It cannot resort to open market operations, as the system liquidity continues to remain in surplus by over Rs 2 lakh crore and therefore, the use of OMOs, essentially a liquidity management tool, cannot be justified. The system liquidity has continued to pile up on account of incessant FX purchases by the RBI to bolster its FX kitty.
Outright purchase of government securities would tantamount to monetisation of debt and would raise more than a few eyebrows. The alternatives that could be considered are:
1) Resorting to something like an operation twist, wherein the central bank sells shorter term securities and buys longer term. Such a move would be liquidity neutral. While a flatter curve is generally negative for banks, it would encourage more Prudent ALM practices by NBFCs.
2) With sovereign bond issuance being ruled out, the other alternative is to induce greater FPI participation in our bond market. Foreign investor participation in our bond markets is relatively low compared to other emerging markets such as Indonesia. This could be the right time to open up the bond markets further by becoming a part of a global bond index in a phased, calibrated manner. A key impediment is the extremely high FX hedging cost. Despite the central bank refraining from paying forwards to sterlise liquidity infused through FX purchases, forwards beyond two years continue to remain elevated.
The MIFOR-OIS spread continues to remain elevated due to dearth of receiving side flows in tenor beyond two years. The RBI can probably do a buy-sell swap two years over five years to flatten that part of the forward curve. However, this would encourage more participants to borrow offshore and the RBI has not been too keen on it, as it will increase the external debt.
Besides structural reforms, to increase the effectiveness of monetary policy it is imperative to reduce the term premium. It would reduce the cost of borrowing for long gestation capital intensive infrastructure projects and would facilitate a pick-up in CAPEX cycle.
We may see the RBI address this conundrum in the December monetary policy.
The author is Founder and CEO of IFA Global.Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.LIVE NOW... Video series on How to Double Your Monthly Income... where Rahul Shah, Ex-Swiss Investment Banker and one of India's leading experts on wealth building, reveals his secret strategies for the first time ever. Register here to watch it for FREE.