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Last Updated : Jun 06, 2020 08:50 AM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

The weekly dossier: Top voices of D-Street give you cues about the market

In the coming week, market observers expect the market to consolidate before starting the next leg of the rally.

A man reacts as he looks at a screen displaying the Sensex results outside the Bombay Stock Exchange building, Mumbai, March 12. REUTERS
A man reacts as he looks at a screen displaying the Sensex results outside the Bombay Stock Exchange building, Mumbai, March 12. REUTERS

The week went by augured well for the equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty as they logged gains of about 6 percent week-on-week, underpinned by hopes that the easing lockdown will get the economy back on track gradually.

The Indian equity market posted its biggest weekly gain since October 2017, CNBC-TV18 data showed.

There are as many as 204 stocks in the S&P BSE 500 index which rallied 10-90 percent in just five trading sessions for the week ended June 5 that include names like Indiabulls Real Estate, Titan Company, Bajaj Consumer, Max India, Vodafone-Idea, Trident, IDBI Bank, etc. among others.

Close

While the rally is mouth-watering, it is not convincing and most experts term it a phenomenon known as ‘fear of missing out’ or FOMO.

In the coming week, market observers expect the market to consolidate before starting the next leg of the rally.

Here's what eminent experts of D-Street have to say about the market:

Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Indian equities followed positive global cues, which was driven by ECB’s additional stimulus boost. Investors are pricing in a global economic recovery, supported by central banks’ policy measures across geographies. Strong FII inflows over the last few days have also provided support to the market.

Given the sharp rally witnessed over the last few days, we may see the Indian market consolidating or taking a breather, before starting the next leg of the rally. Even valuations have turned expensive at 21 times FY21E earnings and any negative development on the global front might derail the momentum. Hence, 'buying on the decline’ would be a better strategy over the next few weeks.

Technically, the immediate hurdle for the index is placed at 10,300 and then 10,500 zone while support exists at 10,000 then 9,950-9,890 zones.

Vinay Agrawal, CEO, Angel Broking

The market will focus on the US Fed Interest Rate Decision, India’s Industrial Production for April and Inflation data for May, amongst a host of other data releases scheduled for next week.

Going forward, next week, markets are expected to trade volatile as they approach key resistance zones, for the Nifty around the 10,200-10,300 zone, where we are likely to witness profit booking.

Analyzing derivatives data, 9,500-10,500 appears to be the broader range for next week. Hence, trading with a cautious approach is advised in the near term.

Vinod Nair- Head of Research- Geojit Financial Services

Investors are banking on a global economic recovery, fuelled by central bank policy measures to support the respective economies. Investors need to be a bit cautious since valuations are running high and the expected recovery is not yet visible in the numbers.

The indices are approaching its technical resistance levels, although there are no signs of fatigue in the market. The number of virus infections continues to rise in India and has not shown any signs of abating. This is worrisome, because it may get worse when measures are eased from June 8.

Currently, there seems to be a disparity between the market and the economy while valuations are also getting heated since the expected recovery is still not showing up in the numbers.

Simmering geopolitical tensions may also affect the global markets which will have an impact on ours as well. Caution is advised and stock-specific accumulation may be continued.

Jimeet Modi, Founder & CEO, SAMCO Securities & StockNote

Going ahead, it would be important to watch out for how liquidity percolates in global financial markets. This dispersal of liquidity may hint at a possible long-term direction for the Indian markets as well.

This signal will aptly be depicted by FPIs and hence their behavior will have to be observed to understand liquidity flows into India.

A ground-level reality check next week will also throw important signs for the markets. It is expected that markets would witness profit-booking at higher levels in the weeks ahead. Investors are advised to stay away from the current volatilities for the time being. Nifty50 closed the week at 10,142.2, up by 5.9 percent.

Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking

Our domestic markets are largely mirroring the global counterparts in the absence of any positive trigger on the local front.

We reiterate our positive yet cautious view, citing immediate hurdle around 10,250 in Nifty. We feel the banking index still has steam left and that could help the index to inch higher alongside others.

However, any negative development on the global front might derail the momentum. Traders should continue with the 'buy on dips' approach with a focus on stock selection.

Deepak Jasani, Head Retail Research, HDFC Securities

Technically, with the Nifty surging higher after taking a breather on last Thursday, the underlying trend remains up.

The uptrend is likely to accelerate next week once the immediate high of 10,178 is cleared towards 10,295-10,340. On the downside, crucial supports to watch for resumption of weakness are at 9,944.

Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak securities

For the coming week, Nifty would find support at 9,900 and at 9,800, however, on the higher side, 10,300 and 10,550 would be major hurdles for the market.

We need to see how the US market performs from here as they are near to major hurdles according to Fibonacci retracements. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 have completed 80 percent of the entire fall, whereas the Nasdaq entered into an all-time highest level.

According to technical analysis, to sustain around major resistance requires strong positive newsflow. In the absence of that, the resistance starts acting as a major supply point in the market. In the year 2019, the level of 10,550 acted as ultimate support for the market and it should act as major resistance if Nifty rally to the same.

In brief, in the coming week, we need to keep a close watch on US markets and on the level of 10,550. Be a buyer in MNC and in those companies which can follow the trend of global markets like metals and technology.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
First Published on Jun 6, 2020 08:50 am
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