Technical View: Nifty reclaims swing high, RSI & MACD signal more steam left; Bank Nifty near ATH, VIX cools down further

Nifty Rally

Bulls Roared! The Nifty 50 reclaimed its previous swing high and closed at a three-and-a-half-month high on April 17, extending its upward journey for the fourth consecutive session. After consolidating around the 200-day EMA, the index staged a robust rally on the weekly F&O expiry day, with banks taking the driver's seat and pushing the Bank Nifty closer to its all-time high.

Given the strong technical sentiment—reflected in indicators like RSI, MACD, and Stochastic RSI—the index appears poised for an immediate target of 24,000 (the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement from the September 2024 high to the April 2025 low). Sustaining above this level could open the door to 24,545 (the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement), while the 23,600–23,500 zone is likely to act as support, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 opened lower at 23,402 and declined to 23,299, but after a couple of hours of rangebound trading in the morning, it gained momentum as the day progressed. The index touched an intraday high of 23,872.35, surpassing the previous swing high of 23,869.6 seen in March, before closing at 23,851.65—its highest closing level since January 3—up 414.5 points (1.77 percent) on strong volumes.

The index formed a long bullish candle on the daily chart, indicating a faster upside retracement of the recent down leg (the 9-day decline has been fully retraced in just 7 days of upmove). This signals a significant trend reversal to the upside, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

It also formed a long bullish candle following a gap-up opening on the weekly timeframe, decisively clearing the mid-line of the Bollinger Bands in a week where it gained 4.48 percent—its biggest weekly gain since February 1, 2021. This marks the formation of back-to-back long bullish candles over the last two weeks.

The unfilled weekly upside gap could be considered a bullish breakaway gap, which often forms at the beginning of sharp uptrends, added Nagaraj. The next upside level to watch is around 24,550, while immediate support is placed at 23,600.

According to weekly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 24,000 strike, indicating this level may act as the next resistance, followed by 24,500. Maximum Call writing was noted at the 24,500 and 24,200 strikes.

On the Put side, the 23,500 strike holds the maximum open interest and is expected to be a key support in the upcoming sessions, followed by 23,000. Maximum Put writing was observed at the 23,500 and 23,800 strikes.

The market will remain shut on April 18 for Good Friday.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty was fully backed by bulls, moving closer to its all-time high of 54,467 and closing above the Bollinger Bands with a long bullish candle formation on the daily chart. The index ended at 54,290, its highest closing level since September 26, 2024—up 1,172 points (2.21 percent), extending rally for fourth straight day.

For the week, the banking index gained 6.5 percent, forming a strong bullish candle after a gap-up opening. It continues to trade along the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, which is broadly positive.

"For trend-following traders, key support levels are 53,500 and 53,100. As long as these hold, the uptrend is likely to continue," said Amol Athawale, VP – Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

On the upside, the index may advance to around 54,500–55,000, with a further move potentially taking it up to 55,300, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX (volatility index), also known as the market’s fear gauge, maintained its downtrend and stayed below the 16 mark, boosting investor confidence. It closed at 15.47, down 2.51 percent on Thursday, and declined 23.08 percent over the week.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.