Moneycontrol
Last Updated : Feb 07, 2019 07:52 AM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

Tata Motors Q3 preview: What analysts expect from the auto major

The company is due to declare results o February 7, 2019.

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Brokerages believe the company is likely to post steady numbers for domestic business.

The company is due to declare results on February 7, 2019.

Here is a gist of what brokerages anticipate from results.

Brokerage: Reliance Securities | Profit: Rs 1143.7 crore

Standalone volume grew by 1 percent YoY, while JLR volume fell by 4.4 percent YoY, which will drag the company’s consolidated revenues and earnings. INR depreciation against the GBP will inflate reported sales and operating profit. Also, depreciation at JLR is on rising trend due to higher capex.

Brokerage: Motilal Oswal | Profit: Rs

Consolidated revenues are estimated to grow 4.5 percent YoY (+7.4 percent) QoQ), with EBITDA margin contracting 70bp YoY to 10.8 percent.

JLR’s net realisation is expected to increase by 1.8 percent YoY (+0.2 percent QoQ). JLR’s EBITDA margin would contract 20bp YoY (+160 bp QoQ) to 10.7 percent. We expect PAT of GBP 35 mn (v/s loss of GBP 101 mn in 2QFY19 and profit of GBP 89 mn in 3QFY18).

Key issues to watch

Current demand trends for JLR and outlook for key markets.

Demand trend in domestic markets and new product launch.

Impact of forex hedge loss.

Brokerage: Edelweiss | Profit: Rs 715.7 crore

The brokerage expects consolidated revenue growth of 6 percent YoY, as the India business continues to remain robust. We expect consolidated operating margins to improve sequentially by 110bps to 9.2 percent due to an improvement in the India and JLR businesses

Brokerage: Kotak Institutional Equities | Profit: Rs 1,1510 crore

The brokerage expects standalone revenues to decline by 1 percent YoY due to flattish volumes and a marginal decline in ASPs (lower mix of higher tonnage MHCV volumes).

“We build in a standalone EBITDA margin of 5.6 percent in 3QFY19 (7.9 percent in 2QFY19 and 8 percent in 3QFY18); YoY decline is due to higher commodity prices, weaker mix and negative operative leverage,” analysts at the firm wrote in their report.

It sees reported EBITDA margin to improve by 180 bps YoY due to lower hedging losses and the company's cost reduction efforts.

Brokerage: ICICI Securities | Profit: Rs 486 crore

The broking firm expects challenging times to continue at Tata Motors amidst nearly flat volumes in the domestic business (1.72 lakh units) and likely 7.4 percent decline in volumes at JLR (1.47 lakh units). At JLR, with a focus on cost control, we expect EBITDA margins to improve 40 bps QoQ to 9.5 percent. On a consolidated basis, sales in Q3FY19 are expected at Rs 78,340 crore, up 6.7 percent YoY.

EBITDA is expected at Rs 8,614 crore (EBITDA margins at 10.9 percent, flat QoQ).

Brokerage: Prabhudas Lilladher | Profit: Rs 875.7 crore

Standalone domestic volumes over Q3FY19 were flat YoY / down ~10 percent QoQ. Further, on account of higher discounting in the industry, we expect standalone margins to be at 7.3 percent, down 120 bps YoY as well as QoQ.
First Published on Feb 7, 2019 07:52 am
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