Stockology: Risk-reward ratio favours bulls, Nifty may top 22,800 in March

Mcap of 7 of top-10 most valued firms climb Rs 65,302 cr; TCS, ICICI Bank biggest gainers

Stockology is a weekly column by futurologist Mahesh Gowande. He is the founder and director of Ayan Analytics which has developed ZodiacAnalyst. It is a research software, with time and price charting tools, and it is exclusively used along with technical support.

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Volatility continued in the market but most surprising was the Nifty closing at an all -time high on a weekly basis.

On the last day of the week, metal stocks hogged the limelight, and hospital and medical facility stocks witnessed selling pressure due to negative remarks from the Supreme Court.

We were expecting 21,800 to get broken but at various lower levels, bulls kept accumulating quality stocks, which finally defended weak spots and levels and on the last day of the week, TimeMap favouring the bulls, and markets witnessed a new closing high.

Generally, Dow theory prefers a lower close on the last trading day of the week and a higher opening on Monday. Banking has started confirming a nice positive upward move in the coming few days.

Technical 

On the shorter time frame the stop has been confirmed at 21,530 and the confirmed stop loss for the weekly has shifted now to 21,130.

The formation on the chart is very strong and it is comforting to add more money to the system.

The risk-reward has turned in favour of the bulls and the volume pattern is hinting at rising accumulation at this level, which is giving an immediate target of 22,531 & 22,897 ideally before March 31.

Confirmation of the 22,531 is already done by the weekly movement. We have been mentioning not to exit core and strong positions and to keep trimming and renter the momentum stocks.

TimeMap 

Broadly after a long time, a clear negative week lies ahead. Sun's currently transiting Aquarius, the most speculative or gambling sign of all. People under the strong influence of Aquarius tend to be slightly adventurous. The positive aspect of Mercury 60 Uranus – will give a nice boost to the Steel, Telecom, Transport, and logistic sector, on 8th Mercury 0 Neptune and Sun 60 Uranus, Mars 90 Uranus, will create volatility and negative movement in the markets. Global sentiment will get hurt due to some political events.

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Private banks, FMCG and consumer index heavy stocks will attract maximum allocation. The above-mentioned planetary aspect with Uranus indicates allocation towards large-cap, Uranus being the indicator of sector leaders.

Weekly view ahead

March 4, 2024: K.9: Jyestha: Auspicious day to initiate shorts

Tithi gives optimism and bullish aggression in the first half and the second half gives finest sell trades. On the other hand, Moon in Jyestha, selling in technology and select sector leaders against bullish trades in capital good sector is indicated.

For all the bearish traders, best day to initiate position short to be held for two to three months for 30 to 40 percent gains. STBT highly recommended and to be covered before 11 am, technology showing weakness for some time.

March 05, 2024: K.10: Moola: Bad Day

Lower opening of the indices is expected. Most traders would come with a mindset of selling. Tithi gives nice reversal trades. The best strategy of the day would be delayed participation. Nakshatra Moola is positive, and gives best result to cement as a sector, good money can be made. Another sector to watch is two-wheeler companies, which will also attract lot of activity. Looking at the data set,  an upside swing of 2 percent can be used for selling. Market neutral baskets will give best results.

March 6, 2024: K.11: PurvaShadha: Bad day

Tithi is auspicious to invest but it has significant bearish influence. Nakshatra is good for-profit booking and sitting on cash. Ideally, participation after lunch time would be more rewarding and decision making would be much clearer without any confusion. Buying is recommended for today and tomorrow, mean reversion and divergence indicator both should confirm the entry. Best day of the week for the bulls to make money. BTST is highly recommended. Sector to watch – NBFC. Insurance positive, political positive companies will give lot of profits.

March 07, 2024: K.12: UttaraShadha: Auspicious Day

SIP day of the week, we highly recommend SIP in ETF especially Bank Nifty, manufacturing ETF, mid and small quality ETF. The services sector is to be watched.

Buy and sell using hourly signal confirmation from divergence indicator would be better. Expect positive close.

March 08, 2024: K.13: Shravan: Bad Day

Tithi is very volatile and the tendency of the participants is to give slightly excessive reaction. Shravan is best to use market intelligence or Khabri calls, and it gives best results. Screen reading is best tool to participate in the market. Another advantage of the day is gut feel really works well.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.