Closing Bell: Sensex down 239 pts, Nifty ends near 24,750; ITC, IndusInd Bank, Ultratech Cement, Nestle India top losers

The Nifty spent another day in consolidation, with the index remaining largely range-bound ahead of the monthly expiry. On the hourly chart, the index has slipped below the critical 21-EMA and 50-EMA, indicating a weakening trend in the near term. Immediate support is seen at 24,700; a sustained move below this level could trigger further selling pressure. Significant put writing at 24,700 reinforces the technical setup. On the higher end, notable call writing is observed at 24,800. A decisive move above 24,800 could force call writers to cover their positions at the 24,800 CE, potentially triggering a sharp rally in the market.

Markets were extremely range-bound with a negative bias as weak European cues and domestic monthly F&O expiry on Thursday prompted investors to trim their holdings. The minutes of the US FOMC meeting held in early May to be released tomorrow will provide some hint to the markets on the direction of the interest rates going ahead.

Nifty opened on a flat note, witnessed range-bound consolidation, and ultimately settled on a negative note at 24,752. The volatility index, India VIX, cooled off by 2.79% to 18.02, indicating a drop in market volatility. Technically, the Nifty index formed a red candle on the daily chart, indicating weakness. However, it continues to trade above its 21-Day Exponential Moving Average (21-DEMA), which is positioned near 24,570. As long as the index holds above this level, the probability of a pullback move cannot be ruled out. On the upside, the index is likely to face strong resistance near the 25,000–25,100 zone.

The Bank Nifty index opened on a negative note, witnessed recovery, and finally settled on a positive note at 55,417. Technically, the index formed a small green candle on the daily chart, indicating strength. On the upside, it is still facing resistance near the 56,000–56,100 zone. On the downside, 21-DEMA support is placed near 54,830. As long as the index remains above this level, it could attempt a relief rally towards 56,000 levels

The Indian rupee mirrored the dollar index's movement, recovering most of the intraday losses. The US dollar faced headwinds from rising US bond yields and fiscal worries. Domestically, month-end dollar demand and foreign funds outflows to pressure on the local rupee. Despite these pressures, the rupee's outlook remains favorable due to improved economic conditions and foreign fund inflows. In the near term, USDINR is expected to trade within the 84.80 to 85.90 range.

The domestic indices remained rangebound with a negative bias, primarily due to the lack of support from FIIs and prevailing premium valuations. A lingering concern over India-US trade relations following the end of the 90-day pause period continues to pose an external risk. On the domestic front, key economic indicators such as an improved monsoon forecast, a benign inflation outlook, and expectations of a stronger Q4GDP may help cushion downside risks. However, earnings visibility needs to improve in tandem with the macros, which is vital for stability in the direction.

Equity benchmarks ended in the red, with the Sensex falling 239 points and the Nifty closing just shy of the 24,750 mark. Weakness in FMCG, auto, and pharma stocks weighed on sentiment. ITC, IndusInd Bank, Ultratech Cement, and Nestle India emerged as the top laggards on the Nifty.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty FMCG led the decline with a 1.5 percent drop, followed by Nifty Auto, down 0.7 percent. Nifty Metal and Nifty Pharma each slipped 0.6 percent, while Nifty Consumer Durables eased 0.5 percent. On the flip side, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Media stood out as the top gainers, adding 1 percent each.

#1 Net profit down 58.7% at Rs71 cr vs Rs172.80 cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue up 9.50% at Rs1,198.20 cr vs Rs1,095 cr (YoY)

#3 EBITDA up 5.80% at Rs227 cr vs Rs214 cr (YoY)

#4 Margin at 18.92% vs 19.57% (YoY)

#5 Board recommends Rs160/sh as final dividend for FY25

#1 Net Profit up 3% At Rs191.7 Cr Vs Rs186 Cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue up 13.8% At Rs1,594.6 Cr Vs Rs1,401 Cr (YoY)

#3 EBITDA up 5.5% At Rs170.8 Cr Vs Rs162 Cr (YoY)

#4 Margin At 10.71% Vs 11.56% (YoY)

QIB – 0.63 times

NII - 0.19 times

Retail – 0.52 times

Overall – 0.49 times

QIB – 0.47 times

NII - 0.19 times

Retail – 0.57 times

Overall – 0.41 times

Chemicals player Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd's (GFL) shares tumbled five percent in trade on Wednesday, May 28, after the firm's standalone results came sharply under analyst expectations.

Rejection trades resurfaced again, pushing Nifty again below the 10day SMA for the second time in four days. This indicates lack of momentum, and the need for consolidation at lower levels, before another upswings may be attempted. Towards this end, we expect another test of 24500 vicinity. That said, consistent hourly close above 24755 our downside objective pencilled in yesterday, is a sign of bargain hunting, which may encourage some positivity initially. Such a move would gain strength only on clearing 24886 though, and its upside prospects may be limited to 25077 for now.

The nifty ended lower yesterday in a rather volatile trading session. Technically speaking, 24462 remains a critical swing low. If it holds - and this is the preferred view - the market will target first resistance at 25116 and then 25390. On the other hand, should 24462 break, a "rising wedge" pattern will be activated, with a downside target set near the 23900 - 24000 area. We mentioned 24822 yesterday as important short-term support, and despite falling below this level, the index closed slightly above it. The message is that this level remains important tactically. Meanwhile, the global macro picture and market sentiment remain supportive, especially with President Trump extending the deadline for EU tariffs to the 9th of July.

Positive cues from the US market, weak dollar and soft gold will provide a favourable macro construct for the equity market today. Large liquidity with the mutual funds and the trend of sustained SIP inflows would encourage fund managers to buy consistently. Tariff-related issues and President Trump’s comments on a whole host of economic and non-economic issues would continue to weigh on markets. The MPC is almost certain to cut policy rates by 25 bp in the June 6th policy meeting. Therefore, rate sensitives will be in focus in the coming days.

The Indian rupee opened lower against the US dollar for the second consecutive session, trading at 85.64 per dollar, down 0.34 percent from its previous close.

In yesterday’s trading session, Nifty experienced significant volatility with a downward trend driven by bearish sentiment. However, amidst the negativity, a notable positive emerged as FIIs and DIIs were net buyers, amounting to Rs 348 crores and Rs 10,105 crores respectively. The decline in COVID-19 cases no longer dominates headlines, while market sentiment remains optimistic about buying opportunities post Trump's EU policy reversal.

Technically, Nifty’s upward momentum hinges on maintaining above the 24,363 mark, with bullish prospects strengthening upon closing above 25,117, targeting its all-time high of 26,277. Key upcoming catalysts include the FOMC Meeting Minutes and US Personal Consumer Expenditures report. Today’s focus shifts to Q4 results from AVANTI FEED, BATA INDIA, CUMMINS INDIA, GRANULES, IRCTC, and POLYPLEX, alongside market movements in Jio Financial Services, Interglobe Aviation, Bayer CropScience, and the Sensex rejig. Looking ahead, optimism prevails for Nifty to align with global market trends, with specific bullish recommendations for HUDCO, SBI CARDS, and CHOLAMANDALM FINANCE.

The Indian rupee fell to 85.47 on Tuesday before recovering slightly to close at 85.33, as exporters stepped in to sell receivables near their costing levels. The initial weakness was largely attributed to an outward flow of $900 million related to Zomato.

With no fresh updates on the trade deal and calm on the geopolitical front, the rupee is expected to open around 85.42 today, with a projected trading range of 85.00 to 85.60. Exporters are likely to continue hedging near the 85.50–85.60 mark, while importers may wait for a dip below 85.00 to initiate near-term dollar purchases, according to Finrex Treasury.

Shares of cigarette-to-FMCG conglomerate ITC Ltd will be in focus on Wednesday, May 28, as British American Tobacco Plc (BAT) prepares to trim its stake in the company.

BAT is set to offload 2.3 percent of its holding in ITC to institutional investors through a block deal, marking its second such transaction after selling a 3.5 percent stake for Rs16,690 crore last year.

Cummins India, Bata India, Dr Agarwals Health Care, Dr Agarwals Eye Hospital, EMS, Finolex Cables, Granules India, Hinduja Global Solutions, Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation, Mamata Machinery, Natco Pharma, Steel Authority of India, and TVS Supply Chain Solutions will release their March quarter earnings on May 28.

Crude oil was trading higher at $64.39 per barrel, up 0.47 percent from its previous close, amid rising prospects of new U.S. sanctions on Russia.

Gold was trading slightly higher at $3,307 per ounce, up 0.18 percent from its previous close.

Gift Nifty indicates a muted opening, trading at 24,852 as of 7:50 a.m., down 10 points or 0.04 percent.

Benchmark equity indices fell sharply on Tuesday, snapping a two-day rally, as weak cues from Asian markets and heavy selling in IT and financial stocks triggered a broad-based decline.  The Sensex dropped 624.82 points, or 0.76 percent, to close at 81,551.63 after a volatile session. In intraday trade, it plunged as much as 1,054.75 points, or 1.28 percent, to hit 81,121.70. The Nifty also slipped 174.95 points, or 0.70 percent, to settle at 24,826.20.

#1 Asian markets climb after Wall Street gains on EU tariff delay

#2 Gift Nifty signals a flat start

#3 US futures mixed after overnight rally

#4 Wall Street rallies ahead of Nvidia earnings

#5 Dow snaps four-day losing streak

#6 Nasdaq advances roughly 2.5%

#7 Investors will watch out for FOMC minutes

#8 European markets end higher; DAX at fresh record

#9 US 10-year yield ticks lower to 4.44%

#10 USD gains amid better than expected consumer confidence data

#11 Gold futures clock mild gains; Brent above $64

Asian shares opened higher, tracking the biggest rally on Wall Street in over two weeks, as investor sentiment was lifted by a rebound in US consumer confidence and a global surge in bond markets.

A regional stock gauge climbed 0.5 percent, with gains led by Japan and South Korea. Yields on the 30-year US Treasury held steady after their largest one-day drop since late March, amid speculation that Japan may adjust debt issuance following recent market turmoil. Meanwhile, oil prices rose ahead of an upcoming OPEC+ committee meeting.

US Stocks rallied on Tuesday after President Donald Trump announced over the holiday weekend that he had agreed to delay a fifty percent tariff on the European Union.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 740.58 points, or 1.78 percent, to close at 42,343.65. The S&P 500 rose 2.05 percent to 5,921.54, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.47 percent to 19,199.16, boosted by strong gains in technology stocks, including Tesla. All three indexes snapped a four-day losing streak.