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Slideshow | Weakness may get an extension ahead of the November expiry: Experts

A sustainable move below 17,700 (which seems likely), we could see a fresh leg of correction in coming days. After this, next levels to watch out for would be 17,450 and 17,200, where one needs to reassess the situation, says Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One.

November 22, 2021 / 08:46 AM IST
Stock Matket Today:

Stock Matket Today:

Markets fell nearly 2 percent and broke the two-week gaining momentum in a truncated week ended November 18 on weak global cues and a spike in FIIs selling. In the last week, the BSE Sensex fell 1,111.41 points (1.83 percent) to close at 59,575.28, while the Nifty50 rose 337.95 points (1.86 percent) to close at 17,764.8 levels. Markets fell nearly 2 percent and broke the two-week gaining momentum in a truncated week ended November 18 on weak global cues and a spike in FII selling. In the last week, the BSE Sensex fell 1,111.41 points (1.83 percent) to close at 59,575.28, while the Nifty50 rose 337.95 points (1.86 percent) to close at 17,764.8 levels.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities | For the traders, 17950 would be the immediate hurdle. If the index rises above the level, a pull-back momentum can continue up to 18025-18150-18200 levels. On the flip side, trading below the 50 days SMA or 17900, the index could slip up to 17600-17500 levels. Contra traders can take a long bet near 17500 with a strict support stop loss at 17425. Meanwhile, after a long time, the Bank Nifty traded below the 50 day SMA which is broadly negative. The texture suggests 38500 and 39000 could act as important resistance levels in the short run. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities | For the traders, 17,950 would be the immediate hurdle. If the index rises above the level, a pull-back momentum can continue up to 18,025-18,150-18,200 levels. On the flip side, trading below the 50-day SMA or 17,900, the index could slip up to 17,600-17,500 levels. Contra traders can take a long bet near 17,500 with a strict support stop loss at 17,425. Meanwhile, after a long time, the Bank Nifty traded below the 50-day SMA which is broadly negative. The texture suggests 38,500 and 39,000 could act as important resistance levels in the short run.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services | Going forward, rising inflationary pressure will continue to haunt global markets as fears of rate hikes will pump out liquidity from emerging markets like India. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services | Going forward, rising inflationary pressure will continue to haunt global markets as fears of rate hikes will pump out liquidity from emerging markets like India.

Palak Kothari, Research Associate at Choice Broking | Technically the index has given a breakdown of the rising trend line & given closing below 50 DMA, which suggests weakness for the next trading sessions. From the last four trading sessions, the index has been trading with lower highs & lower lows, which points out some corrections for the next trading session. However, the Index has taken support from the lower band of Bollinger, breaching below can show further downside. Furthermore, the index has given closing below 21 DMA as well as the Stochastic & MACD indicator is trading negative crossover, which points to weakness in the counter for the next trading sessions. At present, the index has a support level of 17650, while resistance is at 18000 levels. Palak Kothari, Research Associate at Choice Broking | Technically the index has given a breakdown of the rising trend line and given closing below 50 DMA, which suggests weakness for the next trading sessions. From the last four trading sessions, the index has been trading with lower highs and lower lows, which points out some corrections for the next trading session. However, the index has taken support from the lower band of Bollinger, breaching below can show further downside. Furthermore, the index has given closing below 21 DMA as well as the Stochastic and MACD indicator is trading negative crossover, which points to weakness in the counter for the next trading sessions. At present, the index has a support level of 17,650, while resistance is at 18,000 levels.

Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities | On the technical front 17,700 and 18,000 are near term support and resistance in Nifty 50 and for Bank Nifty, 37,680 may act as immediate support while 38,396 is seen as resistance level. Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities | On the technical front 17,700 and 18,000 are near term support and resistance in Nifty 50 and for Bank Nifty, 37,680 may act as immediate support while 38,396 is seen as resistance level.

Close

Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | We reiterate our cautious view on the markets, given the feeble global cues. Besides, the charts are also indicating the prevailing corrective move to extend further, with immediate support at 17,500 or lower in Nifty. In case of a rebound, the 17,900-18,000 zone would act as a resistance. Considering the scenario, traders should limit leveraged positions and maintain a few shorts also. Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | We reiterate our cautious view on the markets, given the feeble global cues. Besides, the charts are also indicating the prevailing corrective move to extend further, with immediate support at 17,500 or lower in Nifty. In case of a rebound, the 17,900-18,000 zone would act as a resistance. Considering the scenario, traders should limit leveraged positions and maintain a few shorts also.

Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | As the result season is through, D-Street will look for cues from international factors to decide its movement. In the absence of any positive triggers, indices are expected to remain under pressure as the markets have been embracing a ‘Sell on Rise’ mood. In the coming week as well, stock specific movements will be more prevalent than movements in the market as a whole. As global macros will continue to dominate, investors should observe FII activity to weigh the sentiment and adopt a selective approach rather than venturing in any aggressive trades. Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research, Samco Securities | As the result season is through, D-Street will look for cues from international factors to decide its movement. In the absence of any positive triggers, indices are expected to remain under pressure as the markets have been embracing a ‘Sell on Rise’ mood. In the coming week as well, stock specific movements will be more prevalent than movements in the market as a whole. As global macros will continue to dominate, investors should observe FII activity to weigh the sentiment and adopt a selective approach rather than venturing in any aggressive trades.

Rohit Singre, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | Index closed a week at 17746 with loss of nearly two percent and formed a bearish candle on weekly chart hinting weakness in the markets. Now next good support for the market is coming near 17600 zone if managed to hold above-said levels one can expect a good pull back in the index again towards 18k mark but if failed to hold then we may see more drag down in Nifty towards 17300-17000 mark. The immediate hurdle is coming near 17830-17940 zone where one can again lock their gains in longs. Rohit Singre, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | Index closed a week at 17746 with loss of nearly two percent and formed a bearish candle on weekly chart hinting weakness in the markets. Now next good support for the market is coming near 17600 zone if managed to hold above-said levels one can expect a good pull back in the index again towards 18k mark but if failed to hold then we may see more drag down in Nifty towards 17300-17000 mark. The immediate hurdle is coming near 17830-17940 zone where one can again lock their gains in longs.

Rohit Singre, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | Index closed a week at 17746 with loss of nearly two percent and formed a bearish candle on weekly chart hinting weakness in the markets. Now next good support for the market is coming near 17600 zone if managed to hold above-said levels one can expect a good pull back in the index again towards 18k mark but if failed to hold then we may see more drag down in Nifty towards 17300-17000 mark. The immediate hurdle is coming near 17830-17940 zone where one can again lock their gains in longs. Rohit Singre, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities | Index closed a week at 17746 with loss of nearly two percent and formed a bearish candle on weekly chart hinting weakness in the markets. Now next good support for the market is coming near 17600 zone if managed to hold above-said levels one can expect a good pull back in the index again towards 18k mark but if failed to hold then we may see more drag down in Nifty towards 17300-17000 mark. The immediate hurdle is coming near 17830-17940 zone where one can again lock their gains in longs.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | We expect the long term fundamentals of the market to remain positive and hence advice investors to keep accumulating quality stocks on declines. In the near term however, market may remain under pressure until fresh positive triggers appears. Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | We expect the long term fundamentals of the market to remain positive and hence advice investors to keep accumulating quality stocks on declines. In the near term however, market may remain under pressure until fresh positive triggers appears.

Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | A sustainable move below 17700 (which seems likely), we could see a fresh leg of correction in coming days. After this, next levels to watch out for would be 17450 and 17200, where one needs to reassess the situation. On the flipside, if Nifty manages to hold 17700 and move higher first, then 18000 – 18200 are to be considered as strong hurdles, which as of now we do not expect to get surpassed in the near future. We advise traders to remain light which we have been advocating of late and even if one wants to accumulate stocks with a broader perspective, one needs to be a bit patient as we expect some reasonable prices to come in next few days. Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | A sustainable move below 17700 (which seems likely), we could see a fresh leg of correction in coming days. After this, next levels to watch out for would be 17450 and 17200, where one needs to reassess the situation. On the flipside, if Nifty manages to hold 17700 and move higher first, then 18000 – 18200 are to be considered as strong hurdles, which as of now we do not expect to get surpassed in the near future. We advise traders to remain light which we have been advocating of late and even if one wants to accumulate stocks with a broader perspective, one needs to be a bit patient as we expect some reasonable prices to come in next few days.

Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | The overall structure shows that the Nifty is still in a consolidation phase however the range has shifted lower. 17600 – 18000 will be the near term range for the benchmark index. Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | The overall structure shows that the Nifty is still in a consolidation phase however the range has shifted lower. 17600 – 18000 will be the near term range for the benchmark index.

 

Dharmesh Shah, Head – Technical, ICICIdirect | We expect Nifty to hold 17500 in ongoing corrective phase amid oversold readings, while extending broader consolidation in 17700-18200 amid stock specific action. Sectorally, Capital goods, telecom, auto are expected to outperform while BFSI provide favourable risk-reward setup. Pull backs in metal space are expected to be short lived Dharmesh Shah, Head – Technical, ICICIdirect | We expect Nifty to hold 17500 in ongoing corrective phase amid oversold readings, while extending broader consolidation in 17700-18200 amid stock specific action. Sectorally, Capital goods, telecom, auto are expected to outperform while BFSI provide favourable risk-reward setup. Pull backs in metal space are expected to be short lived

Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart | Indian market is showing signs of weakness after a long consolidation and there is a risk that weakness may get an extension ahead of the November month F&O expiry. Indian markets are underperformed since the beginning of the November series as we are seeing a mean reversion after a long period of outperformance in 2021. On the domestic front, the Indian markets will react to the news of the withdrawal of the Farm Laws bills. I think this should not have much impact on the market because these bills were not implemented yet however the texture of the market is weak where the market reads more negative cues than positive cues. Heavyweight Reliance may also put some pressure on the market after news that its deal with Aramco has been canceled. The market may remain volatile ahead of the November month F&O expiry and anecdotally expiry is all about momentum where currently it is in favor of the downside. Technically, Nifty was consolidating between its 20 and 50-DMA but now it has witnessed closing below its 50-DMA that may lead to further selling pressure. Nifty is forming a bearish head and shoulder formation where 17600 is neckline support; below this, selling pressure may get momentum towards 17100-17000 zone however 17450-17250 will be intermediate support zone. On the upside, 20-DMA that is currently placed at the 18000 mark will act as a strong resistance; above this, we can expect a short-covering rally. Bank Nifty is underperforming and likely to head towards its rising 100-DMA that is currently placed around the 37000 mark while 50-DMA Of 38500 will act as an immediate hurdle. Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart | Indian market is showing signs of weakness after a long consolidation and there is a risk that weakness may get an extension ahead of the November month F&O expiry. Indian markets are underperformed since the beginning of the November series as we are seeing a mean reversion after a long period of outperformance in 2021. On the domestic front, the Indian markets will react to the news of the withdrawal of the Farm Laws bills. I think this should not have much impact on the market because these bills were not implemented yet however the texture of the market is weak where the market reads more negative cues than positive cues. Heavyweight Reliance may also put some pressure on the market after news that its deal with Aramco has been canceled. The market may remain volatile ahead of the November month F&O expiry and anecdotally expiry is all about momentum where currently it is in favor of the downside. Technically, Nifty was consolidating between its 20 and 50-DMA but now it has witnessed closing below its 50-DMA that may lead to further selling pressure. Nifty is forming a bearish head and shoulder formation where 17600 is neckline support; below this, selling pressure may get momentum towards 17100-17000 zone however 17450-17250 will be intermediate support zone. On the upside, 20-DMA that is currently placed at the 18000 mark will act as a strong resistance; above this, we can expect a short-covering rally. Bank Nifty is underperforming and likely to head towards its rising 100-DMA that is currently placed around the 37000 mark while 50-DMA Of 38500 will act as an immediate hurdle.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Nov 22, 2021 08:46 am

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