Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities
The benchmark indices witnessed volatile trading session, the Nifty ends 9 points lower while the Sensex was down by 37 points. Among sectors, profit booking continued in Metal and Financial stocks, both indices registered profit booking at higher levels. Whereas, some buying was seen in selective Pharma and IT stocks.
Technically, after a sharp fall the index opened in the green but corrected sharply. After early morning selloff the index witnessed range bound activity. Lower top formation intraday charts and bearish candle on daily charts indicating continuation of weakness in the near term.
However, momentum indicators suggesting strong possibility of pullback rally from the current levels. We are of the view that, the bearish sentiment in the market is still intact and fresh pullback rally possible, if the index succeeds to trade above 200-day SMA (Simple Moving average) or 16940/56950. Above which, the index could retest the level of 17150-17200/57500-57700.
On the flip side, below 16940/56950, it could slip till 17850-17800/56600-56500. The intraday texture of the market is non directional, hence level based trading would be the ideal strategy for the day traders.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities
The benchmark Nifty remained range bound ahead of the RBI policy meet. The index briefly slipped below 16950 as it failed to sustain at the lower level leading to a close above 17000. On the lower end, bulls have managed to protect the 200 DMA on a closing basis.
The momentum indicator is in a bearish crossover. The trend remains weak; however, the proximity to the crucial support may induce a pullback in the market.
On the higher end, resistance is visible at 17150-17200. Above 17200, the Nifty may move towards 17500. On the other hand, a decisive fall below 16950 may trigger a panic button.
Mohit Nigam, Head - PMS, Hem Securities:
Benchmark Indices closed slightly down with Nifty 50 closing -0.05% down and Sensex closing -0.07% down today. Selling pressure was witnessed in Auto, financial, capital goods and power stocks while some buying was witnessed in Pharma, FMCG and IT stocks.
IT stocks are showing strength from past few sessions with strengthening of USD against INR. IT companies result will start coming from Mid Oct and it may trigger the next move in this sector. Investors should start accumulating good quality IT stocks in a staggered manner.
On the technical front immediate support and resistance in Nifty 50 are 16800 and 17400 respectively. Immediate support and resistance in Bank Nifty are 38000 and 39000, respectively.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
In search of a safer dollar and elevated bond yields, foreign investors are withdrawing from Indian equities, resulting in the decline of the domestic market.
In contrast to the recent trend of sector performance, banks and autos are exhibiting negative bias, while IT and pharma are showcasing resilience. Crude price are closing down, despite expectations that OPEC+ will take more action to cut production in the coming meeting, due to weakening global economy.
Churchil Bhatt, Executive Vice President Debt Investments, Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company
It is time for the bond market to take one for the rupee. The fact that the MPC may hike policy rates by 50 bps instead of 35 bps is not necessarily a game changer for bond markets. In fact, it is a small price to pay for managing currency volatility.
Rupee Close:
Indian rupee ended higher at 81.57 per dollar against previous close of 81.62.
Market Close:
Benchmark indices ended on flat note in the highly volatile market on September 27.
At Close, the Sensex was down 37.70 points or 0.07% at 57,107.52, and the Nifty was down 8.90 points or 0.05% at 17,007.40. About 1836 shares have advanced, 1483 shares declined, and 125 shares are unchanged.
Cipla, Tata Consumer Products, BPCL, Power Grid Corporation and Shree Cements were among the top gainers on the Nifty. Losers included Hero MotoCorp, Adani Ports, Titan Company, Tata Steel and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
Selling was seen in capital goods, power, auto, metals and financial names, while buying was seen in pharma, oil & gas, FMCG and IT names.
BSE midcap index ended on flat note, while smallcap index gained 0.5 percent.
Sharekhan View on Alicon Castalloy
Alicon Castalloy is likely to benefit from multi-year order wins, which are expected to contribute significantly going forward. We remain positive about the company’s growth prospects, given the company’s multi-year order wins, increased share of highmargin machined components, and enhanced share of e-mobility components.
We expect Alicon’s earnings to report a robust 118% CAGR during FY2022-FY2024E, led by a 27% revenue CAGR and a 300-bps improvement in EBITDA margin to 13.4% in FY2024E from 10.4% in FY2022.
We have revised our Price Target upwards to Rs 1,111, led by rolling forward our target multiple to September 2024E EPS.
Sharekhan View on Vinati Organics
Vinati Organics’ dominant global market share in ATBS/IBB segments, niche product portfolio and massive export opportunity in the specialty chemical sector would drive sustained long-term high double-digit earnings growth.
Likely higher ATBS margin and ramp-up of Butyl Phenol would drive strong 32% PAT CAGR over FY2022-FY2025E along with solid RoE/RoCE of 25%/33%.
Potential merger of Veeral Additives (VAPL) with Vinati remains a key catalyst for the stock in FY23.
Hence, we maintain Buy on Vinati Organics with an unchanged price target of Rs 2,500.
Vinati Organics was quoting at Rs 2,050.05, up Rs 5.30, or 0.26 percent on the BSE.
Shree Ajit Pulp to consider rights issue on September 29
Shree Ajit Pulp and Paper said the board of directors are scheduled to be meet on September 29 to consider issue of equity shares of the company on rights basis.
Shree Ajit Pulp and Paper was quoting at Rs 296.20, up Rs 3.55, or 1.21 percent on the BSE.
Srikanth Subramanian, CEO, Kotak Cherry:
The monetary policies in emerging markets will inevitably take cues from the US Fed. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee will take guidance from high inflation in India and uneven data points from global economies. They may also take into account that banking system liquidity in India has gone negative compared to 2019.
With retail inflation above RBI’s comfort range there is that the RBI will increase rates by 25 basis points. However, it is very possible that the RBI might decide this is a good time to be ahead of the curve and increase rates by 50 basis points.
Market at 3 PM
Becnhmark indices erased all the intraday gains and trading flat.
The Sensex was up 0.84 points or 0.00% at 57146.06, and the Nifty was down 0.80 points or 0.00% at 17015.50. About 1682 shares have advanced, 1468 shares declined, and 130 shares are unchanged.
10-year bonds rally on crude slide, fuels hope of inclusion in global index
FTSE Russell will announce the results of its debt index review on September 29 after close of US markets. India's bonds are also under review for inclusion by JP Morgan Chase & Co... Read More
BSE Bank index fell 1 percent dragged by the Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, SBI
Emkay Emerging Stars Fund announces third round of distribution of proceeds to its AIF investors
Emkay Investment Managers Ltd (EMIL), the asset management arm of Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd has announced the third round of distribution of proceeds from Emkay Emerging Stars Fund – Series 1, 2, and 3 to the existing unit holders.
The move comes within 2 months of its previous round of distribution of proceeds which was in July 2022, making it one of the few pioneering funds to have achieved this feat. (AIF-Series 1 closes on 08.01.2023; AIF-Series 2 closes on 26.03.2023; AIF-Series 3 closes on 14.10.2023)
Emkay Global Financial Services was quoting at Rs 80.20, up Rs 0.40, or 0.50 percent on the BSE.
European Markets Updates
Buzzing stock
Shares of gaming company Nazara Technologies were under selling pressure after the Tamil Nadu government passed an ordinance banning online gaming in the state, dealing a blow to the nascent but fast-growing sector. The Tamil Nadu cabinet, led by Chief Minister MK Stalin, approved an ordinance on September 26 to ban online games with stakes in the state. According to a government statement, the ordinance will take effect following the governor's approval. The stock was trading at Rs 661.10, down Rs 18.95, or 2.79 percent on BSE. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 675.00 and an intraday low of Rs 653.45.
Suvodeep Rakshit, Senior Economist at Kotak Institutional Equities
:
Inflation prints over the coming months are expected to remain elevated albeit moderating gradually to below MPC’s upper threshold of 6% in 4QFY23. With the MPC expected to continue with rate hikes, the lagged impact of monetary tightening will help curb inflation expectations. Accordingly, we expect the average CPI inflation trajectory to be lower than the RBI’s estimates by around 60 bps in 1HCY23.
We maintain our FY2023E CPI inflation estimate at 6.5%. We retain our view that the MPC will continue with calibrated repo rate hikes towards 6% by end-CY2022 with 35 bps hike in the September policy along with the shift in the operating target from SDF to repo rate by end-FY2023.
Market alert
: US Futures extend gains, Dow Jones Futures up 300 points.
Exide Industries starts work on lithium-ion cell making plant, first phase to be operational by end of 2024: Bloomberg
Market update at 2 PM: Sensex is up 229.00 points or 0.40% at 57374.22, and the Nifty added 69.90 points or 0.41% at 17086.20.
Gainers and Losers on the BSE Sensex
Silicon Rental Solutions IPO to open for subscription on Sept 28
Silicon Rental Solutions has fixed the price brand of ₹98 per equity share for its forthcoming public issue on BSE SME Platform through the fixed price route.
The issue size comprises issuance of up to 27.12 lakhs equity shares of the face value of Rs 10 each fully paid-up shares through the fixed price process. The issue will open for bidding on September 28, 2002 and close 30 September 2022.
Rupee Updates:
Indian rupee trading higher by 21 paise at 81.41 against its previous close of 81.62 per dollar.
Orient Bell completes expansion at Hoskote plant in Bengaluru
Orient Bell announced completion of expansion at its Hoskote plant in Bengaluru district. This expansion involved capex of around Rs 34 crore well ahead of schedule.
With this the total capacity of the company has increased from 32 MSM per annum to 33.8 MSM per annum including 10 MSM per annum of the associated entities.
Orient Bell was quoting at Rs 609.35, up Rs 10.45, or 1.74 percent.
BSE Smallcap index gained 0.5 percent supported by the HCC, Jtekt India, State Trading Corporation Of India
Check out stocks that are witnessing a huge surge in volumes traded today. View More
Oil rises as focus turns to possible supply cuts
Oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday, after plunging to nine-month lows a day earlier, amid indications that producer alliance OPEC+ may enact output cuts to avoid a further collapse in prices.
Brent crude futures for November settlement rose $1.17, or 1.39%, to $85.23 per barrel by 0644 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for November delivery were up $1.13 at $77.84 per barrel.
HFCL bags Rs 202.60 crore orders
HFCL has received the Purchase Orders aggregating to Rs 202.60 crore, consisting Purchase Orders of Rs 167.60 crores from Reliance Retail Limited & Reliance Projects & Property Management Services Limited for supply of Optical Fibre Cables and of Rs 35 crores from one of the overseas customer for supply of various types of OFC & its related accessories.
Market at 1 PM
Benchmark indices were trading higher in the highly volatile market.
The Sensex was up 241.24 points or 0.42% at 57386.46, and the Nifty was up 66.70 points or 0.39% at 17083. About 1705 shares have advanced, 1413 shares declined, and 116 shares are unchanged.
Here are the list of stocks which gained the most during the last hour: Click to View More
Infosys opens Digital Centre in Calgary, Canada
Infosys inaugurated the Infosys Digital Centre in Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Infosys also announced it would bring 1,000 jobs to Calgary over the next two years, doubling its original commitment from when the company first expanded into the region in 2021. This will support the company’s growth across Canada as it also plans to double its total workforce commitment in the country to 8,000 employees by 2024, company said in its release.
Infosys was quoting at Rs 1,390.00, up Rs 10.25, or 0.74 percent on the BSE.
Sugandha Sachdeva, Vice President - Commodity and Currency Research, Religare Broking:
Crude oil prices are showing signs of stabilizing after the swift decline towards a nine-month low with markets considering the prospects of further action by the OPEC+ members at their October 5 meeting, as the oil cartel hinted at their discomfort with declining crude prices.
Softening of the dollar index and uncertainty over a price cap being imposed by the EU on Russian oil are also underpinning crude oil prices. We foresee prices to witness recovery towards USD 80 a barrel for WTI while for Brent, prices look to rebound towards USD 87 a barrel.
Nifty Pharma index added 0.5 percent supported by the Granules India, Abbott India, Dr Reddy's Laboratories
CLSA View on Maruti Suzuki
CLSA keep a sell call on the stock with a target of Rs 7,374.
The Grand Vitara pricing is higher than that of Toyota Hyryder, and Maruti will not be able to significantly gain market share in the SUV segment.
We believe consensus estimates will be downgraded and estimates are too bullish on market share gains.
Maruti Suzuki India was quoting at Rs 8,781.60, down Rs 49.00, or 0.55 percent on the BSE.
BSE Power index gained 0.5 percent led by the Torrent Power, Adani Power, Power Grid
Edelweiss Financial Services to raise up to Rs 4,000 mn via issue of NCDs
At a meeting of the debenture fund raising committee of the board of directors of Edelweiss Financial Services has considered and approved the public issue by the company of secured, redeemable, non-convertible debentures of face value of Rs 1,000 each for an amount up to Rs 2000 million with an option to retain oversubscription up to Rs 2000 million, aggregating up to Rs 4000 million.
Market at 12 PM
Benchmark indices erased all the intraday losses and trading higher with Nifty above 17,000.
The Sensex was up 124.05 points or 0.22% at 57269.27, and the Nifty was up 29.10 points or 0.17% at 17045.40. About 1604 shares have advanced, 1462 shares declined, and 116 shares are unchanged.
GPT Infraprojects approves bonus issue in 1:1 ratio
The board of GPT Infraprojects has approved the bonus issue of equity shares in the proportion of 1 equity share of Rs 10 each for every 1 equity shares of Rs 10 each held by the shareholders of the company as on the record date to be fixed by the board, subject to the approval of shareholders through Postal Ballot.
Muthoot Finance signs MoU with UAE based Lulu International Exchange
Muthoot Finance has signed a MoU with UAE based Lulu International Exchange to work as its collection partner.
Through this partnership, Muthoot Finance aims to drive convenience and ease of money transfer for over 4 lakh NRIs in the UAE region whose relatives have availed gold loans back home, company said in its release.
