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Last Updated : Feb 02, 2018 04:07 PM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

Sensex, Nifty take a hit post Budget 2018. 5 reasons weighing on sentiment

LTCG, fiscal slippage and global selloff, among others, are some of the reasons behind this fall.


A day after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley presented the Union Budget 2018, equity markets in India took a beating on the back of several announcements made in his speech.

The Sensex lost over 800 points intraday in the opening minutes of trade, while the Nifty lost almost 250 points and traded near 10,700 levels.

Midcaps have continued to crack, while financials, pharma and metals are trading weak as well.

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Moneycontrol takes a look at five major reasons why the market has fallen today.

Long-term capital gains tax

The move surprised D-Street as most analysts were factoring in a change in definition of ‘Long Term’ to 2 or 3 years from 1 year. An imposition of additional tax over and above this time-frame issue spooked investors.

The government introduced the much talked about long term capital gains tax (LTCG) on sale of listed securities on gains of over Rs1 lakh.

Jaitley, introduced a long-term capital gains tax of 10 percent if the gains exceed Rs 100,000 without allowing the benefit of indexation. However, all gains till January 31, 2018 will be grandfathered and short term capital gains remains unchanged at 15 percent.

Fiscal slippage

The market is also worried about the fiscal slippage issue, largely because of the degree of deviation as well.

The government revised the fiscal deficit target to 3.5 percent of GDP to for 2017-18, indicating a deviation from the path of fiscal consolidation because of a spillover impact of the new indirect tax system—Goods and Services Tax.

For the next financial year 2018-19, fiscal deficit target is pegged at 3.3 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

“Revised fiscal deficit estimates for 2017-18 are Rs 5.95 lakh crore at 3.5 percent of GDP. I am projecting a fiscal deficit of 3.3 percent of GDP for the year 2018-19,” Jaitley said while presenting Union Budget, 2018.

Tax on income from equity mutual funds

In times when flows from mutual funds were one of the highest, the imposition of a fresh tax on income from them could have spooked investors too.

Investors will have to pay 10 per cent tax on distributed income from equity oriented mutual funds, as per the Budget proposals announced.

Besides, the overall investor sentiment will be hit with the introduction of 10 per cent tax on long term capital gains exceeding Rs 1 lakh, as mutual funds have recently emerged as a key route to invest in stock markets, experts said.

Global markets

The Nifty futures on Singaporean exchange (SGX Nifty) was trading were trading over a 100 points lower, hinting at the selloff that is visible in Indian market as well.

Meanwhile, other global indices are trading weak too, probably why the market is showing weakness here as well.

Asian shares came under pressure after Wall Street closed mixed and yields on US government debt rose in the last session.

Japan's Nikkei 225 declined 1.3 percent after snapping a six-day losing streak in the previous session. Technology names were mostly lower, with heavyweight SoftBank falling 1.5 percent.

The US equities pulled back as investors worried about rising interest rates.

The S&P 500 declined 0.1 percent to close at 2,821.98 after rising as much as 0.4 percent. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.4 percent to 7,385.86. Earlier, the tech heavy index traded 0.4 percent higher as Facebook shares hit an all-time high. Facebook reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue on Wednesday.

Technical factors

The D-Street on Thursday witnessed a volatile day as the index moved in a band of over 200-points on throughout the trading session which led to a formation of a ‘High Wave’ kind of pattern on the daily candlestick charts.

A High Wave kind of pattern is formed when there is a long upper shadow and a long lower shadow with a small body. The pattern is similar to a spinning top kind of pattern but in the high wave, the shadows are longer.

Experts said that if bears manage to push the indices below 10900 levels on closing basis then trend should turn in their favour. Traders are advised to maintain a stop below 10900 levels on closing basis.

A fall around those levels in the opening tick could have led to the selloff here.

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First Published on Feb 2, 2018 09:22 am
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