James Sullivan of JP Morgan says the brokerage house remained overweight on emerging markets (EM) and expects continued performance in Asia, led incrementally by China.
Base case is a slow lift-off by the Federal Reserve which will not fundamentally alter easing potential in most of EM Asia, he feels.
He says this belief in slow lift-off is supported by rising labour force participation which is preventing unemployment from dipping into significant inflationary territory & limited requirements for aggressive rate hikes.
Sullivan feels negative interest rate policy (NIRP) in Europe and Japan extends the impact of monetary policy for some time.
According to him, oil could be lower than forecast on the back of resurgent Nigerian supply.
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