In 2018 the index went up, and returned to where it was, but midcaps came down 30-80 percent, Kedia hopes that next Diwali should be better than this year.
Treat the stock market as a high-risk-high-reward business. But, remember risk is in not knowing the risk. Investing is a stressful business, and if you can't handle stress invest through a mutual fund, Vijay Kedia, MD, Kedia Securities tells Moneycontrol’s Kshitij Anand in an interview.
Q: What is your assessment of the market at current levels? We are down nearly 10 percent from a record high and already wiped out gains in 2018. What is your target for Sensex and Nifty until next Diwali and why?
A: Well, I don't have any target for the index as of now. I also don't put any time-wise and price-wise target for any of my shares. As long as the Indian population and Indian economy is growing, I am not worried.
The index is a faulty indicator for the mid-cap segment where I invest. In 2017 the index was static but many mid-cap stocks went up manifold.
In 2018 the index went up, and returned to where it was, but midcaps came down 30-80 percent. I would say that the hangover has somewhat settled down. Next Diwali should be better than this year, hopefully.
Q: Sensex and Nifty are marginally higher from last Diwali, but the big carnage has already happened in small and mid-caps. Do you think the selling pressure will continue in the broader market until next Diwali or is it the right time to catch the falling knife, but selectively?
A: Prior to 2003, bull cycles were shorter and bear cycles were longer. After that period, bull cycles were long and bear cycles were short.
In my view selective stocks are providing good opportunities to invest. But, be careful and wear gloves to catch any falling knife. What it means is that investors should study well about the company before putting their money to use.
I remember a famous dialogue of old Hindi movie star Rajkumar. In the movie Waqt, referring to a knife, he said “Ye bachcho ke khelne ki cheez nahi hai. Haath katne se khoon nikal aata hai”.
Q: What is your advise to investors this Diwali considering the fact every trick in the book seems to have failed to protect portfolio destruction?
A: Treat stock market as a high-risk-high-reward business. But, remember risk is in not knowing the risk. Investing is a stressful business. If you can't handle stress invest through a mutual fund.
Q: How are you reading September quarter results from India Inc up until now?
A: I am satisfied with the results of my companies in which I have invested in. They are well on track. The bull market is not about when all your company will exceed your expectation QoQ. It's not a magic. But, be reasonable and realistic. I remember another old dialogue from a Hindi movie, Kabhi Khushi Kabhi Gham.
Q: And since it's Diwali, could you tell us if you have a unique way of spreading the message of value investing?A: I have written and sung two songs only for young and new investors and uploaded them on YouTube. I have put all my experiences in those lyrics.