Below 10800, Nifty could fall back to 10690 with minor support at 10740, says Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities.
Nifty failed to cross 10,990 on January 21. Rather, it closed lower below the 10800, which is negative for the market.
Bulls failed to encash initial gains of the previous week and a last attempt to conquer 10,990 on January 25 also resulted in heavy hammering towards the end.
Below 10,800, Nifty could fall back to 10,690 with minor support at 10,740. A heavy sell-off could begin if Nifty closes below 10,690 on January 28.
Below 10,690, Nifty is likely to fall to 10,550-10,500 minimum.
However, after the sell-off we witnessed last week, until Nifty is not crossing the level of 10,990, technically market would remain weak and of sell-on-rise nature.
Confusion is hovering, possibly because of India VIX, which is trading at a neutral level i.e. at 17.50. In the previous week, we were of the view that before an announcement of the interim Budget, the market would move to 11,200 levels, which was the final target for current corrective upmove.
It would have helped India VIX to move towards the lower boundary at 14 or 13. That could also be possible on the Budget day and we must be cautious if it comes.
For the week, be stock-specific till January 31 and on February 1 if Nifty finishes below 10,550, then it would send the market to retest the level of 10,000 (previous lows) in the coming month.
The author is a senior VP - Technical Research, Kotak Securities.Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on Moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.