Daily Voice | Mid & small-caps better than large-caps for wealth creation in FY24, says Shriram LIC CIO Ajit Banerjee

Q: The RBI delivered on expected lines. Do you expect the change in policy stance and interest rate reversal towards end of the calendar year?

RBI on expected lines continued with the rate pause decision which it had announced in April 2023 and maintained the status quo on its stance on withdrawal of accommodation as the fight for taming the inflation continues. It has emphasised the continued global fluidic situation prevailing. The policy tone was balanced, but it remained non- committal on the decision on future rate actions by Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

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In view of liquidity conditions expected to remain comfortable over the next few months (duly aided by benign FX and supportive currency in circulation (aptly aided by deposit of old Rs 2000 denomination currency which are likely to stay in the banking system in the near future) and inflation level is expected to remain above the target 4 percent level, so the data points suggest that the present stance may perhaps continue in the next policy as well.

Rate cuts seem to be a couple of policies away or even in early 2024 as per present underlying conditions. Probably it is very unlikely that RBI would precede the Fed in reversing its course of rate hikes in the future.

Q: Is it the time to add exposure to rural plays?

The performance of sectors that are indicative of the health of the rural sector viz., two-wheeler sales, FMCG, passenger car, and tractor sales are seeing tractions. Recent management commentaries of companies in these sectors give indications of positive trends ahead in terms of improvement in rural consumption.

The margins are expected to improve with the drop in commodity prices going forward. There is a recovery in the real estate sector both commercial and residential of all categories. These provide substantial employment to the rural sector populations which would further propel rural consumption.

Therefore, long-term investors can look towards adding exposure to rural plays in a staggered way.

Q: Do you think renewables to dominate the energy space in the coming years?

India is the 3rd largest energy-consuming country in the world. This trend of high energy consumption is expected to continue in the future. India stands fourth globally in renewable energy installed capacity (including large hydro), in wind power capacity and in solar power capacity.

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The country has set an enhanced target at the COP26 of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based energy by 2030. India has set a target to reduce the carbon intensity of the nation’s economy by less than 45 percent by the end of the decade, achieve 50 percent cumulative electric power installed by 2030 from renewables, and achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070.

The Union Cabinet has given its approval to introduce the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme in High-Efficiency Solar PV Modules for Enhancing India’s Manufacturing Capabilities and Enhancing Exports – “Atmanirbhar Bharat”. Therefore, renewable energy as a sector has a strong growth outlook and is expected to draw a huge investment in future years with increased intensity as we near the target date set by the government.

This sector would be a good bet to invest for a very long-term investment after carrying out necessary due diligence on the company and thorough analysis by the investor.

Q: Do you expect a significant upside in equities in the coming quarters? What are the main reasons?

We have been seeing from the preceding few quarters that both macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals for Indian companies have improved. Domestic liquidity flow towards the equity market continues to remain both stable and strong.

During 2022, the foreign portfolio investment flows were hugely in negative territory. However, during the current financial year, FPIs have turned aggressive buyers and India has received the highest inflows amongst its EM peers in this FY.

Despite the significant rally since the start of the current financial year, the equity market is currently trading at a TTM valuation of 22.2x PE vs. a 5-year and 10-year average of 24.9x and 22.6x respectively. Therefore, while the Indian equity market does not look extremely cheap, the valuations are not highly overstretched either.

Presently all three medium-term drivers of the equity market — fundamentals, liquidity and valuations – are justifiable. Therefore, we do see a strong possibility of a rally in the Indian equity market from a medium-term perspective unless there is any strong external event that may derail the momentum.

However, when the market moves unidirectionally northwards then that leads to some bouts of nervousness as well amongst investors who then resort to profit booking. Apart from that, we can also expect some modest correction in the near term if there is some intermittent negative news either domestic or external.

Q: Do you expect the CPI to remain below 5 percent in the coming months?

As the price pressures have considerably come off so there is every possibility that headline inflation in the coming months could hover below 5 percent. RBI has now primarily focussed on bringing the CPI to a 4 percent mid-range target.

The RBI governor in the post-policy conference clearly stated that the MPC is aspiring for a 4 percent mid-range target. The deputy governor, Dr. Michael Debabrata Patra, bolstered this view by stressing the point that it is alignment with the 4 percent target, and not achieving 4 percent CPI that mattered, indicating that the durability of 4 percent inflation – which enhances the credibility of the target – is now the primary goal.

Therefore, all measures will be taken towards inflation targeting going forward as RBI sounds quite confident on the growth front at this stage.

Q: Do you see two more rate hikes by Federal Reserve considering the economic data points?

This is difficult to predict at this point in time as it is likely to be a close call and data-dependent. Fed fund futures appear to be factoring in the possibility of a hike in the June policy meeting. Needless to say that the Federal Reserve has a tough task on hand balancing growth-inflation dynamics.

On one hand, the growth parameters for the US economy remain weak and the headline CPI inflation has been moderating. On the other hand, core CPI inflation and services inflation remain sticky.

Q: Is it the time to gradually go overweight on the technology space?

The latest results and management commentaries are mixed. The companies which reported March 2023 results, so far, expect some carry forward of this weakness into the next few quarters as well.

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On account of negative operating leverage, initial expectations of margin improvement have been kept under check. Overall, we feel still some pain is left in this sector especially the large-cap IT companies. Some midcap IT stocks are showing some green shoots though.

The operating environment over the next two quarters is set to remain challenging due to the macro issues and the cautious stance of companies on discretionary spends. However, as the valuations of large-cap IT stocks have significantly corrected so those investors are in for the long haul, adding some exposure in this space.

Q: Also is it the time to prefer small and midcaps over large caps?

Mid & Small-caps are placed comparatively better than their large-cap peers to create higher wealth for investors in FY24 given their EPS growth and valuations. Small and mid-cap stocks have the potential for higher growth rates compared to large caps. These companies are often in the early stages of development or operating in niche markets, which can lead to significant expansion if they succeed.

Softening of commodity prices, the revival of private sector capex, PLI benefits and a pause in interest rate hikes are some of the factors that are likely to support the performance of mid and small-caps in the future. Further, the current outperformance of small and mid-cap stocks seems sustainable at this point in time led by improved earnings outlook and rising investor sentiment towards the broader markets.

However, one word of caution for all investors who want to increase their exposure or take exposure in mid and small-cap stocks is that these tend to be more volatile, less liquid and carry higher risk compared to large-cap stocks. Investors should assess their risk appetite and investment horizon while investing in such stocks.

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