Dovish RBI implies room for more rate cuts. Moderate inflation environment is here to stay. The central bank has room to cut by another 25-50 bps over the next few months, CLSA said.
Global investment banks such as CLSA, Citi, HSBC, Nomura, and BofAML say another 25 bps rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is possible in the June policy meeting.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on expected lines slashed repo rate by 25 bps to 6 percent and kept stance as ‘Neutral’ on April 4. This is the second rate cut by the central bank in 2019.
Global growth still remains a concern for the RBI, but with inflation under the central bank’s comfort level, it could decide to cut rate by another 25 bps.
“Dovish RBI implies room for more rate cuts. Moderate inflation environment is here to stay. The central bank has room to cut by another 25-50 bps over the next few months,” CLSA said in a report.
Reacting to slowdown fears, RBI trimmed GDP growth for 2019-20 which projected at 7.2 percent – in the range of 6.8-7.1 percent in H1:2019-20 and 7.3-7.4 percent in H2 – with risks evenly balanced.
Global central banks are already responding with dovish policies which is a shift from stance a few months ago. The monetary policy stances of the US Fed and central banks in other major advanced economies (AEs) have turned dovish.
Here’s what other global investments banks responded to RBI cut in rates:
The global investment bank is of the view that there is room for one more 25 bps rate cut. High real policy rates continue to offer some space, but it is difficult to expect a deeper rate cut cycle unless CPI surprises on the downside. The focus should be on the transmission of the cumulative 50 bps rate cut.
HSBC expects another 25 bps rate cut in June policy meeting. The RBI may look to take a pause after 25 bps rate cut in mid FY20. The headline growth & inflation are soft, we expect both to rise gradually, said the note.
The global investment bank expects the growth to return to its 7 percent potential in H2CY19. It expects inflation to return to its 4 percent trend rate by March 2020.
Despite neutral stance, Nomura expects another 25 bps rate cut due to downside risks to growth. India faces weak global demand and lagged effects of tight domestic financial conditions.
Now, these two factors will slow growth towards 6.2-6.3 percent in H1CY19, said the Nomura report. The monetary policy easing will boost growth back towards 7 percent only towards end-2019.
Inflation is likely to stay within RBI’s 4 percent mandate through FY20. The core inflation may fall from above 5 percent currently towards 4-4.5 percent by the end-2019.
The global investment bank expects FY20 GDP growth at 6.8 percent compared to RBI’s target of 7.2 percent. It expects RBI to further trim its growth projections in forthcoming policy meetings.
The lending rate cut will support rate sensitive stocks. The global investment bank expects MPC to cut repo rate by 25 bps on June 6/August 7.
RBI rate cuts and sufficient liquidity in the system should speed transmission to lending rate cuts. The central bank may supply liquidity of USD 2-3 billion a month via OMO/3 yr FX swap auctions in June quarter.
The global rate pressures have abated with the US Fed and ECB turning dovish.Disclaimer: The above report is compiled from information available on public platforms. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.