Chinese stocks flirt with correction as investor patience wanes

The market has been on a roller-coaster ride since late September, when a series of stimulus measures by the central bank unleashed a burst of optimism that’s now quickly cooling. Bloomberg

Chinese stocks dipped after early fluctuations, in a sign of growing disappointment over the pace of stimulus rollout.

The CSI 300 Index was down 0.2% as of mid-day break after falling as much as 1.3% during morning trading, which took declines from an Oct. 8 high to more than 10%. A gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong gained around 0.7%, reversing an earlier loss.

The market has been on a roller-coaster ride since late September, when a series of stimulus measures by the central bank unleashed a burst of optimism that’s now quickly cooling. As Beijing takes its time detailing a fiscal spending plan, skepticism is growing whether authorities are willing to deploy greater firepower to turn around the economy and markets.

“This historic surge in momentum at the end of September is of course unsustainable, and given how fast markets rose, it can fall equally fast,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “But overall policy actions are moving in the right direction at a quicker pace and when the dust settles, China equities may still trade in a higher range than before.”

While a decline of 10% would push a benchmark into a technical correction, the extreme volatility gripping Chinese stocks of late has made such milestones less meaningful. The CSI 300 soared more than 30% in about three weeks since mid-September before losing momentum.

Chinese investors have been split over whether the rally has already peaked out, or whether there’s room for further gains.

In a fund manager survey by BofA Securities performed Oct. 4-10, roughly half of the respondents saw up to 10% upside potential for Chinese offshore stocks over the next six months, while another 33% saw gains between 10% to 20%.

Nearly a third of them said they are building exposure on signs of easing, up sharply from just 8% in the previous month. Still, three quarters of the respondents said the market is going through a “structural de-rating.”

Property Stocks

The next key event is a press briefing by the housing minister on Thursday, where authorities may provide more details of measures to support the country’s slumping property sector and bolster economic growth. Any disappointment from that event may reignite a selloff.

Chinese property stocks jumped ahead of the briefing, with a Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of developer shares gaining as much as 8.3%. Iron ore futures were little changed just below $106 a ton in Singapore after swinging between gains and losses. The steel-making staple has been hard hit by China’s slowdown this year, slumping by about a quarter as mills reined in steel production.

Minister Ni Hong will be the latest senior economic official to speak in public about the government’s pivot toward stabilizing growth, after People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng, Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an and the chairman of the country’s economic planning agency, Zheng Shanjie.

The last two pressers by the National Development and Reform Commission and the MoF “have been disappointing so there should be no reason to lift hopes for the briefing tomorrow,” said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee.