Last Updated : Jul 19, 2018 11:15 AM IST | Source:

'Bull market still intact, Nifty likely to see 10% upside this year but midcaps in bear phase now'

Currently 10 stocks are at 52-week low for 1 stock at 52-week high in the NSE 500 index, Atul Suri of Marathon Trends PMS said.

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Nifty from its 2018 lows around sub-10,000 has consistently making higher bottoms is not a function of bear market. In fact, it has been holding above 10,900 levels from last week.

All this indicated that the market is still in the bull market phase, Atul Suri of Marathon Trends PMS said in an interview to CNBC-TV18. "We can expect a 10% upmove on the Nifty by the end of this year."

He said in the bear phase, the market makes lower bottom, which has not been happening.

The reality in NSE Midcap 100 is unlike the Nifty50 as after the fall in January, the index has been making lower bottom, so it indicated that there is a bear market in midcaps and smallcaps, he said. "In the short run, let the midcap index keep tanking, let it stabilise, but the recovery will not happen across midcaps and will be very selective. Generally, it happens in every bull market."

Currently, 10 stocks are at 52-week low for 1 stock at 52-week high in the NSE 500 index. Suri feels the highest levels in midcaps and smallcaps will never come back so early. "It will take long time to come at highest levels and we don't think we will see a 'V-Shaped' recovery in midcaps as investors' mindsets have turned gloomy after seeing 10, 20, 30% fall in their stocks."

The Nifty Midcap index plunged 15% and Smallcap lost 23% this year against the rally of 47% and 57% in 2017, respectively.

Globally, India is a standout market, though money has been moving towards developed markets, he said. "In fact, Dow Jones is far away from its record high levels."

Suri feels apart from laregcap and midcaps, the sectoral churn has been happening and the movement is towards IT, FMCG, consumption, financials and private banks. "But metals are losing big time as the Nifty Metal index fell 21% in 2018. Even Infra index is also down 16%."

Suri believes the biggest trend is happening in financials as post January inspite of market falling, financials remained strong.

Nifty Bank index rallied 5 percent in 2018, Financial Services index gained 7.7 percent and Private Bank 7.77 percent while the Nifty50 rose 4 percent.

In the pharma space, he said there has been accumulation but the good thing is that it will not make new lows from hereon.

On the Brent crude futures, he feels $71-72 a barrel are crucial levels. "We can see a dip of $8-9 a barrel if crude prices slip below $71-72 per barrel."

The rupee has been trading in the range of 68-69 to the dollar. Suri said the currency will remain rangebound and will not be going to lower levels.
First Published on Jul 19, 2018 11:15 am
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