After a setback from Union Budget 2018, the domestic market has shifted focus into the global volatility which is turning cautious due to premium valuation, increase in interest rate and risk of de-globalisation.
In the short-term, the market may have a positive bias and during which the investors should consider shifting the portfolio into low beta, Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said in an interview to Moneycontrol's Kshitij Anand.
Q) We witnessed yet another disappointing week on D-St as Nifty slipped by over 2 percent. What is your call on the markets given the fact that Nifty has already corrected by nearly 1000 points from its record high. Do you see a weakness to continue in markets for some more time?
A) India has gone into a double whammy under the domestic and global headwinds. After a setback from Union Budget 2018, the domestic market has shifted focus into the global volatility which is turning cautious due to premium valuation, increase in interest rate and risk of de-globalisation.
This trend may continue as valuation normalises and bond yield stabilise. For example, India’s government 10-years yield currently stands at 7.77, 49bps up in the last 2months.
Deposit and lending rates are increasing and trajectory of inflation continues to be on the higher side, which augurs further cut in valuation.
In the near-term, RBI is expected to provide additional liquidity to the bond market, which will provide some support to the market especial the financial sector.
Q) Do you think global cues will remain an overhang on D-Street especially if US Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates more than 3 times?
A) The current effective Fed rate is 1.4 percent while the 10-years yield is 2.9 percent. If the US Fed rate is increased by 3times, the effective rate will be 2.15 percent by the end of Dec-2018, if the same spread is maintained the bond yield will increase to 3.65 percent.
The US bond yield has increased by 60bps in the last 3 month, bringing high volatility in the Indian market. Currently, the market is down by about 6 percent, if this situation continues in the global bond market, India will also be impacted.
Q) What should be the right strategy for investors right now?
A) To churn your portfolio towards defensive sectors and reducing high beta stocks should be the key for retail investors. In the short-term, the market may have a positive bias and during which the investors should consider shifting the portfolio into low beta.
Profit booking on stocks with premium valuation and increasing in mutual funds debt are also advisable in the medium-term.
Q) What is your advise to investors who want to put Rs10 Lakh into markets? He is in the age bracket of 35-40 years. He/she is looking at forming a portfolio with direct equities, MFs, a part of fixed income as well?
A) Given our moderate expectation on equity markets, we suggest starting with a holding of 40 percent for equity which can be increased to 70 percent over the long-term.
The focus should be more on Mutual Fund schemes predominantly with largecap exposure which investors can increase through diversified multicap funds.
Direct equity can be 10 to 15 percent of the total portfolio with a focus on defensive sectors. For the time being, high exposure is advised on mutual fund debt scheme at 60 percent with corporate accrual funds.
Q) What should be the ideal strategy for investors in terms of sectors? Do you think PSU banks are a good buy at current levels? What are the sector which you think are likely to show momentum in the year 2018?
A) Well, in terms of PSU Banks, an analyst is not in a position to properly extrapolate today’s actual book value. So the contemplate future value gives a vague expression, may it difficult to know whether it is a good time to invest in PSU Banks.
Hence it may be best to see some stability in the situation. Having said that, PSUB can provide an opportunity for long-term investors as the group of PSU banks consolidate with changes in ethos.
The other sectors retail investors can consider during this volatile period are IT, Pharma, Telecom, Export, rural and infrastructure oriented companies.
Q) Any top five wealth-creating ideas which investors can look at for the next 2-3 years (with rationale)?
We continue to remain positive on HCL on a consolidated basis driven by traction in deal wins and strength in Mode 2 & 3 services (focus on next-gen offerings).
Revenue contribution from Mode 2 & 3 services surpassed 25 percent of the total revenue and the management is eyeing to further increase the contribution from digital business to 40 percent over the next few years.
Deal wins remained strong in Q3FY18 with the company signing twenty transformational deals across services. The company’s strategy of augmenting its IP based partnerships with technology vendors to broaden its product offerings is expected to provide a tailwind to revenue growth going ahead. We factor revenue CAGR of 9 percent over FY17-20E.
AARTI Industries Ltd (ARTO) is a global leader in Benzene based derivative products. The company has a diversified product portfolio with end users in pharma, agrochemicals, specialty polymers, paints & pigments.
ARTO’s Q3 Revenue grew by 29 percent YoY, led by strong growth across business segments with Speciality chemical business grew by 23 percent YoY, home & personal care business 103 percent YoY and Pharma 35 percent YoY.
Recently, ARTO signed Rs10,000cr exclusive supply contract with a global chemical conglomerate for high-value speciality chemical intermediate over a period of 20 years with the commencement of supplies from the Year 2020.
Going forward, we believe that with strong off-take Pharma segment and stable growth from Specality chemicals segments, we factor revenue to grow 14 percent CAGR over FY18E- FY20E. Given healthy earnings outlook, we continue to have a positive rating on the stock.
Torrent’s acquisition of branded formulations business of Unichem Laboratories will strengthen its presence in the domestic market with expansion in the chronic portfolio, improved market share and widening distribution networks.
Besides recovery in US business is expected to drive robust growth going ahead. Higher revenue growth from Europe is also another positive for the company. Given increased R&D spends for high margin/high-volume products and meaningful new launches for coming years.
Notably, the management has guided for 10-15 ANDA filings in FY18 and also indicated plans to submit 3-4 derma products by this fiscal end. We expect Torrent Pharma’s revenue and Adj. PAT to grow at a CAGR of 14 percent/9 percent over FY17-20E owing to increased contribution from the domestic, gradual pickup in US sales through quality filings and strong growth in Germany, Brazil and RoW.
Idea’s focus on the Vodafone merger and accelerating synergistic benefits both in terms of operating cost and capex is expected to achieve a higher level of efficiency going ahead.
The merger process is likely to be completed by H1CY18, we expect synergies to start accruing from FY20E leading to an expansion in EBITDA margin to 28.4 percent in FY20E.
Importantly, the company’s fund-raising will provide Idea with much-needed liquidity to boost network and protect its revenue and market share. Moreover, Idea’s plan to monetise its tower assets will strengthen its balance sheet.
Tata Global Beverages (TGB), an integrated natural beverage company derives ~70 percent of revenue from branded tea business and ~60 percent of the revenue comes from markets outside India.
TGB has put in place a new strategy to drive growth and profitability including exiting from loss-making geographies. Under the core business rejuvenation, TGB will expand its product offerings in premium and non-black categories and enhanced its focus on green and herbal tea categories (higher margins).
It is also planning to foray in large tea consuming Asian markets such as Singapore, Malaysia, and China. To renew Nourishco (JV), TGB launched several new products/variants under Tata Gluco Plus and Himalayan water brands.
We expect TGB to gain market share across geographies led by its innovative premium product offerings and expect revenue/PAT to grow at ~6 percent/23 percent CAGR over FY17-20E.
Q) What will happen in the banking space given the fact that the cost of borrowing is inching higher. The RBI might keep rates on hold in its next policy but may raise rates in 2018?
A) Well, increase in the cost of borrowing and reduction in credit growth are two negative factors for the banking sector, during which valuation gets downgraded. As a result, the current year may be difficult for the sector to maintain a positive trend.
In terms of valuation, the price to book is currently at 2.3x for the banking sector, which is till at the higher side compared to a range of 2.5x to 1.5x in the last 3years.
Q) With Dollar gaining strength there is a higher possibility of rupee weakness. Which sectors are stocks likely to benefit the most? What is your target level for the currency?
A) Flight of foreign funds from the domestic market due to pick up in US economy and FEDs hawkish view on interest rate is adding pressure on INR. Back home, growth in Q3 GDP and signs of pick up in the manufacturing sector may keep INR to trade range bound.We expect USDINR to trade between 65.80 & 64.00 in the near term. IT, pharma and export-oriented companies will be the largest beneficiary. An industry thump rule says that every 100 basis points change in rupee impacts the operating margins of IT companies by 30-50bps.