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Last Updated : Apr 01, 2019 07:22 AM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

A morning walk down D-St: No sell signals on lower time frame charts, things still advantageous for bulls

Sensex rallied more than 2,800 points or 7.8 percent in March to post its best monthly gain since 2009 when it rallied 9.1 percent in the same period

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What a week for Indian markets! Nifty rallied 1.4 percent and is now less than 2 percent away from record high while Sensex added 508 points or 1.33 percent in the same period.

Among sectors, Nifty Bank rallied 2.8 percent during the previous week, followed by Nifty Energy and Metal which gained 2 percent each. The broader markets outpaced frontline indices as Nifty Midcap index climbed 2.9 percent.

Close

Macro data is something that will dictate the trend for Indian markets and the possibility of record highs remains strong in the first week of the new financial year.

Most experts expect a cut in the repo rate of up to 25 basis points. According to them, it looks like the market has already priced it considering the way the market has moved from February 19.

Apart from RBI monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled for three days April 2-4, the infrastructure output for February and external debt for the December quarter 2018 will be announced on April 1.

Nikkei Manufacturing PMI data for March will be released on April 2, and Nikkei Services PMI for March on April 4.

Apart from rate sensitive, automobile stocks will be in focus as they start declaring their monthly sales data for March. The sales data is likely to be mixed for the sixth consecutive month citing high inventories, rising ownership cost, and deferred purchases during general elections.

Globally, S&P 500 index posted its best quarterly gain since 2009, boosted by optimism over the latest round of trade talks between the United States and China.

The yield curve between three-month bills and 10-year notes turned slightly positive on Friday, after being inverted for a week, Reuters reported.

Big News:

Sensex rallied more than 2,800 points or 7.8 percent in March to post its best monthly gain since 2009 when it rallied 9.1 percent in the same period.

The Nifty50 rose by 830 points in March 2019 or 7.7 percent to post its best monthly gain since 2009 when the index rose by 9.3 percent in March.

Apart from strong FII flows expectations of a stable government at the centre, rise in rupee against the US dollar, as well as hopes of a rate cut in April policy meeting, lifted sentiment.

FIIs poured in more than Rs 32,000 crore in Indian markets in March compared to domestic institutional investors that were net sellers to the tune of nearly Rs 14,000 crore.

As many as 219 companies in the S&P BSE 500 index rose 10-60 percent in March that include Kotak Mahindra Bank, MMTC, Aurobindo Pharma, Titan Company, IOC, Page Industries, Bharat Electronics, ICICI Bank, Federal Bank, SBI, Yes Bank, Jet Airways, DLF, Union Bank, Manpasand Beverages, etc. among others.

Technical View:

Nifty formed a bullish candle on weekly as well as monthly charts

The index gained for the sixth consecutive week, rising 1.5 percent and closed the March month with the decent gains of 7.70 percent after its consolidation breakout of last five months.

Friday's price action can be read as a cautious sign but as it is not backed by any sell signals on lower time frame charts, things still look advantageous for bulls, suggest experts.

As long as index sustains above 11,531 (5-days EMA) and 11,600, bulls should be able to touch 11,760.

Three levels: 11530, 11600, 11760

Max Call OI: 12000, 11600

Max Put OI: 11500, 11000

Stocks in news:

Jet Airways will pay December salaries to pilots and aircraft maintenance engineers but for now, cannot pay more recent overdue wages, its chief executive said on Saturday after pilots threatened to strike over payment delays.

State-owned gas utility GAIL India on Friday said it has signed an agreement with Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) for cooperation in the development of solar power projects.

Reliance Capital: ICRA Limited has revised its rating for Anil Ambani-led Reliance Capital and its subsidiaries to A2 with negative implications for its short-term debt programme.

Technical Recommendations:

We spoke to ICICIdirect.com and here's what they have to recommend:

PVR: Buy| Target: Rs 1,805| Stop loss: Rs 1,497| Upside: 10 percent

IPCA Laboratories: Buy| Target: Rs 1,080| Stop loss: Rs 840| Upside: 10 percent

NBCC: Buy| Target: Rs 80| Stop loss: Rs 56| Upside: 20 percent

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
First Published on Apr 1, 2019 07:22 am
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