Goldman Sachs sees a tentative sense of stabilisation in the Indian economy in 2020
India "should stage a rebound in 2020 as global conditions improve," feels Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, as reported by CNBC.
The recovery would be ‘modest’, Hatzius told the publication while there would be "a tentative sense of stabilisation in the Indian economy” in 2020, he said.
He said improved global economic conditions and domestic measures, such as the corporate tax cut and the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy are likely to create some positive momentum.
Goldman Sachs, in November, projected India’s growth to fall to 5.1 percent from 7 percent in 2017 and 2018. It has projected the country’s growth to reach 6.4 percent in 2020.
Terming a recovery to the levels of 2017-18 a ‘tall order’, he added, "We do think that growth probably picks up somewhat from here."
Hatzuis’ comments come as Asia’s third-largest economy posted poor quarter numbers, as its economy grew by 4.5 percent in the June-September period – the slowest growth in six years.
India is now staring at the real possibility of a sub-6 percent annual GDP growth in 2019-20, the first since 2012, amid a stuttering world economy and plunging sentiments at home.
Gross Value Added (GVA), which is GDP minus taxes and is seen as a more realistic gauge to measure economic activity, grew 4.3 percent in July-September 2019, compared to 4.9 percent in the previous quarter and 6.9 percent in the second quarter of 2018.
The data mirrored the markers about the economy's poor health coming out from car showrooms, retail malls and the rapidity of activity in farms.The slowdown comes on the back of the 5 percent GDP growth recorded in April-June and 7.1 percent in July-September 2018.LIVE NOW... Video series on How to Double Your Monthly Income... where Rahul Shah, Ex-Swiss Investment Banker and one of India's leading experts on wealth building, reveals his secret strategies for the first time ever. Register here to watch it for FREE.