IEA’s 2021 outlook on energy-use landscape is more optimistic than last year's
It sees fossil-fuel demand falling faster and sooner than had been expected
October 14, 2021 / 12:24 PM IST
Generation from clean-energy sources will be 15% to 20% higher than what had been expected
The International Energy Agency report says that, for the first time, projections show fossil fuel demand slowing to a plateau in the 2030s and then falling slightly by 2050. This is a scenario the IEA sees emerging taking into consideration the current and planned national policies.
Though there will be higher demand for fossil fuel in the near term, than what was expected in the 2020 report, the demand will be “markedly lower” after 2030.
Natural gas demand projection for 2050 has been lowered by 10% in this year’s report, largely because power and industry sectors in emerging markets and developing economies in Asia are expected to consume less. Oil demand is seen to decline in 2030 for the first time because of muted growth in petrochemicals and faster reductions elsewhere. Coal demand will recover sharply in the near-term but its decline after 2030 will be faster than what had been expected in 2020.
Generation from clean-energy sources such as solar and wind in 2050 will be 15% to 20% higher than what had been expected last year.
IEA also sees two new scenarios emerging in the energy landscape of different countries--Net Zero Emissions and Announced Pledges Scenario. Both present a more hopeful outlook in the global shift to green energy.
Net Zero Emissions (NZE) is one in which the global energy sector achieves net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Net Zero is when a system absorbs emissions equivalent to what it generates. Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) is where all the governments keep their climate commitments and on time.