Trump’s tariffs could hit north, central India, Andhra Pradesh hardest

North central India to be hit the hardest

North and central India could be hit hardest by US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, with 5 percent of the region’s exports falling in categories where the US buys more than half of India’s shipments. Even in products where over two-thirds of exports go to the US, the region’s 1.8 percent share is the highest in the country, a Moneycontrol analysis shows.

At the state level, Andhra Pradesh is the most vulnerable. Home to India’s shrimp-exporting hubs, 2.9 percent of the state's exports are in categories where the US buys more than half of the produce and 2.2 percent in categories where the US buys more than two-thirds.

Trump’s tariffs could hit some parts of India far harder than others, leaving certain states more vulnerable to lost revenue, job cuts, and political blowback if the US doubles tariffs on certain Indian goods to 50 percent from August 27.

Several other states display high proportional exposure despite smaller export volumes. Chandigarh tops the list, with 12.3 percent of its exports in the over-50 percent dependence category—all of which also fall into the over-66 percent bracket. The union territory exports medical, surgical, dental, and veterinary instruments.

Punjab follows with 11.6 percent of exports in the over-50 percent category, while Rajasthan (6.8 percent), Manipur (6 percent), and Uttar Pradesh (5 percent) also rank among the more exposed.

In the south, Kerala’s reliance on US-bound exports stands at 3.5 percent for the over-50 percent category and 1.5 percent for the over-66 percent category. Tamil Nadu’s corresponding figures are 2.3 percent and 0.4 percent.

The data also highlights concentration in smaller territories such as Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu, where 5.2 percent of exports fall into the over-50 percent category and 2.5 percent into the higher bracket. Uttarakhand records a similar pattern, at 2.1 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively.

While the proposed tariffs target a wide range of products, their impact will be uneven, falling hardest on states whose export baskets are reliant on US demand. Andhra Pradesh’s shrimp sector, Punjab’s agricultural and cotton exports, and North India’s manufacturing clusters stand among those most at risk if the duties take effect.