Overall 3% monsoon deficiency; El Nino strengthening: IMD

Reema: What is the cumulative rainfall so far June and July combined as well as in the month of July, is the monsoon still deficient, have we managed to recover the deficiency that we saw in the early part of the month?

A: So far the cumulative rainfall for the country as a whole is 3 percentage less than normal and if you go by regional wise, you have got 12 percent more than normal over northwest India and all other three regions, slightly below normal but over south peninsula there is a deficiency of 17 percentage and northeast deficiency of 8 percentage and Central India deficiency of 2 percentage. After having about 20 days of dry spell, monsoon picked up after July 15 and we are experiencing good rainfall activity over Central India particularly because of two depressions formed over the southwest Rajasthan and another over northeast Bay of Bengal. All the sub-divisions around the systems have received a very good rainfall and as a result particularly for Central India there is a large improvement and for example in Gujarat, some two days back, rainfall deficiency was around 25, now there is a 25 percent excess, so that is the kind of intense rainfall that we have received particularly over Gujarat, Sourashtra region and in the east, we have got a good rainfall over Gangatic West Bengal, Orissa and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Sumaira: The El Nino effects also seem to be intensifying across the globe, what is your own reading telling you?

A: The strong El Nino is likely to continue in the remaining months of the monsoon as well as the post monsoon and as per the prediction, there is almost 100 percent probability of this type of El Nino conditions to continue for a remaining months.

Reema: What is the forecast for the coming 15 days as well as the early part of August, is there any change to your earlier assessment, can the two depressions that you were talking about result in better than expected rainfall in August?

A: The two depressions -- one over the Rajasthan is likely to weakened in next two days but at the same time it is likely to give good rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan and northern part because of interaction with the Western disturbance, which is arriving over the northern part but in the eastern part, the depression now has become deep depression and there it is likely to cross over the Bangladesh. Therefore around that region also we will be experiencing good rainfall activity. We are expecting that merely for central India and northwest India, there will be improvement in the rainfall activity till around August 5 and then rainfall belt will shift to the foothills of Himalayas and after August 10, we may experience a dry spell.

Sumaira: How long might that last?

A: As of now we think that it may extend up to end of August. For whole of August we are expecting a rainfall of about 90 percent of the long period average.

Reema: Just to clarify, you see good activity in the central and north-western part of India till August 5 but from August 10 till the end of August we could see a dry spell so cumulatively in August we could be 10 percent below normal?

A: Yes.

Reema: Considering as of now you have told us the rainfall in Central India is 2 percent below normal, we have seen good rainfall in the last few days as well as you are expecting good rainfall even in the next few days till August 5, so do you think Central India, by the end of the monsoon season could see normal rainfall and not below normal that it is currently tracking?

A: Yes, there can be some improvement. It may come close to 97 percent, the figure will be around that by end of July but as I said El Nino impact is generally more negative in second half, we may get relatively less rainfall in the second half.