Most broking firms do not expect any rate cuts in the near future, due to macro-economic constraints more than anything else.
The appointment of Urjit Patel as the successor to RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, signals the government’s commitment to policy continuity at the central bank, according to broking firms. They do not expect any rate cuts in the near future, due to macro-economic constraints more than anything else. Here's what leading broking firms have to say:
There could be some knee-jerk sell-off in bond markets as the euphoria of extensive monetary easing moderates. However, we continue to expect that some scope for rate cuts could emerge as the “upside risks” to the CPI breaching the RBI’s 5% target for Jan’17 are lowered, though given our current CPI forecasts, we do not expect the repo rate to be lower than 6 percent in FY17. Strong commitment shown to the inflation-targeting framework would encourage long-term investors. We expect USD-INR around 68 in the next 9-12 months.
Scope for further policy easing exists, but we have now pencilled in only one more 25bps cut in rest of FY17 (from 25-50 bps expected earlier). Space for monetary easing will get constrained in FY18 as upside risks to inflation follow from GST implementation, house rent allowance (HRA) increases under the Pay Commission award, closing of output gap and supply-side bottlenecks. We believe the pace of transmission of a policy rate cut in terms of lower lending rates by scheduled commercial banks will remain the key focus of policymakers, and for that, banking sector reforms are critical.
Urjit Patel as the new RBI Governor reaffirms continuity of policy. Dr. Patel is generally perceived as the least dovish among the key contenders, and the most likely to ensure continuity of the existing monetary policy framework. However, his appointment could disappoint investors expecting aggressive rate cuts. We expect the March-18 target of 4 percent to be retained and maintain our call of 25 bps rate cut in 4Q'CY2016 (October-December). Monetary policy checks on fiscal policy, and the push for greater transmission of policy rates to lending rates are likely to continue.
Urjit Patel’s appointment pretty much signals that the Government intends to continue inflation targeting as Urjit’s thought process is considered to be not too different from that of Mr Rajan and generally hawkish. Certain section of investors who were hoping for aggressive rate cuts may get disappointed