The growth estimates for the current financial year 2020-21 being negative might have some veracity but it is important to not see growth as just an average in a year where the economy has to bear the brunt of COVID-19 pandemic and an ensuring lockdown to control its spread, Uday Kotak, President of Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) said on June 4.
"We can't see growth as a yearly average in these circumstances but month-by-month how it is coming back. We need to see it as a granular month-by-month recovery. I am sure trend line for quarter after quarter would be reasonably up," Kotak said at a press conference after assuming office as president.
Kotak also said these are early days to say how soon the recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels of growth would be as India is only just coming out of a lockdown.
"At this stage considering the significant impact of COVID-19 in the first two months of the year, it is reasonable to assume that we may have an average that might be negative, but I would see trend growth getting normalcy by end of the year," Kotak said.
CII on June 4 laid out a 10-point road map to revive growth and navigate the challenges of loss of lives and livelihoods posed by the global pandemic COVID-19 that has forced countries across the world to reset their growth paths.
Frequently Asked Questions
A vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. A vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from any future COVID-19 infection, but also helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. The good news is that SARS-CoV-2 virus has been fairly stable, which increases the viability of a vaccine.
There are broadly four types of vaccine — one, a vaccine based on the whole virus (this could be either inactivated, or an attenuated [weakened] virus vaccine); two, a non-replicating viral vector vaccine that uses a benign virus as vector that carries the antigen of SARS-CoV; three, nucleic-acid vaccines that have genetic material like DNA and RNA of antigens like spike protein given to a person, helping human cells decode genetic material and produce the vaccine; and four, protein subunit vaccine wherein the recombinant proteins of SARS-COV-2 along with an adjuvant (booster) is given as a vaccine.
Vaccine development is a long, complex process. Unlike drugs that are given to people with a diseased, vaccines are given to healthy people and also vulnerable sections such as children, pregnant women and the elderly. So rigorous tests are compulsory. History says that the fastest time it took to develop a vaccine is five years, but it usually takes double or sometimes triple that time.
CII’s new theme for 2020-21 Building India for a New World: Lives, Livelihood, Growth was unveiled by the newly elected president Uday Kotak at a press conference held on a virtual platform.
Emphasising on the imperative to bring back growth, the CII president said, “Growth is a necessity that should lead to creation of more jobs while CII works as a knowledge partner with the Government for building self-reliant and competitive India that is deeply engaged with the World."CII's 10-point roadmap to revive growth in the post-COVID world includes focus on protecting lives and livelihoods, prioritisation of healthcare and education, fiscal deficit and financial stability, distribution of economic pain, role of digital and physical, role of digital and physical, future of jobs and social security, rural-urban rebalance, four levers for growth, and getting growth back.