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Nov 30, 2017 10:48 PM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

GDP growth recovers to 6.3% — as it happened

Live updates as the Central Statistics Office (CSO) releases gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates for the second quarter (July-September) of 2017-18.

20:00 That's it from the live updates. Read the full report on the GDP growth numbers here.

19:44 On the rising prices of perishables, Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian said that the government will take action to keep prices in check. In recent times, while the prices of non-perishable goods like oilseeds and pulses have reduced, prices of perishable goods have risen.

19:29 Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar says the only weakness is exports and construction as of now. "Much more focus and attention is required to boost exports," Kumar said.

19:15 Finance secretary Hasmukh Adhia says there is likely to be some shortfall in indirect taxes since “we will have only 11 months revenues and 12 months expenditure”.

19:04 FM Arun Jaitley says the fixed capital formation also means that investment is moving upwards.

19:01 Jaitley says the growth in manufacturing has been heartening.

18:59 We should hopefully go back to higher growth rates in the coming quarters, says Jaitley.

18:56 Jaitley says the effects of demonetisation and GST are now behind us. "Now we can look for upward trajectory," he says.

18:53 Arun Jaitley is speaking now. He says this quarter's result has been impacted by the growth in manufacturing.

18:48 India alone cannot generate double-digit growth, but would need the help of the global economy achieve it, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said earlier today, before the GDP estimates were released.

“A 10 percent growth is a very challenging figure. It will not merely depend on domestic factors. It will also depend on how the world is moving,” Jaitley said at the Hindustan Leadership Summit.

18:35 Congress leader and former finance minister P Chidambaram has spoken: Happy that the July-September quarter has registered a growth rate of 6.3%. This a pause in the declining trend of the last five quarters. But we cannot say now whether this will mark an upward trend in the growth rate.. We should wait for the growth rates over the next 3-4 quarters before we can reach a definite conclusion. 6.3% is far below the promise of the Modi government and far below the potential of a well-managed Indian economy.

18:27 The structural reforms are just short term pain for long term gain, says Union Health Minister JP Nadda.

18:21 Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is expected to address the press in about half an hour from now.

18:18 The steps taken by government for macroeconomic stabilisation and reforms including GST have put the economy on a sustainable growth path, a top government sources tells CNBC-TV18.

18:10 A government official tells CNBC-TV18 that the GDP growth for Q2 is in line with expectations and is reflective of a positive upswing in the economy.

18:04 Anant says at the time of the final revised estimates, GVA might turn out to be higher after taking into account the implementation of GST.

18:01 GST introduced a certain statistical challenge for CSO, says Anant.

17:57 Anant says the performance of agriculture has been affected by the non-crop segment. "This year's production is not as good as last year even though it is better than the five-year average," he says.

17:56 Chief Statistician TCA Anant says the GDP numbers are 'very encouraging'.

17:54 Services without construction at 7.1% vs 8.72% (QoQ) and 7.8% (YoY).

17:50 Manufacturing growth at 7% vs 1.2% (QoQ) and 7.7% (YoY).

17:47 The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is expected to hold a press conference in a few minutes.

17:45 Industries with construction growth at 5.8% vs 1.61% (QoQ) and 5.9% (YoY)

17:44 Agriculture growth at 1.7% vs 2.3% (QoQ) and 4.1% (YoY)

17:42 GVA comes in at 6.1% vs 5.6% (QoQ) & and 6.8% (YoY).

17:40 Q2 FY18 GDP growth reverses declining trend seen in the last 5 quarters.

17:34 BREAKING: GDP growth recovers to 6.3% in the second quarter of FY18

17:25 Union Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu said on Thursday that India is poised to become the third largest economy in the world in the next few years, asserting that the government wants to take manufacturing to 20 per cent of the GDP, helped by SMEs.

"In the next few years time we will have USD 5 trillion of GDP, so USD 1 trillion of that will come from manufacturing and the substantial part of that, we are aiming to get from small and medium enterprises (SMEs)," he said.

17:20 Nominal versus Real GDP

GST’s inflationary impact is still unknown. CSO gives out both the “real” or inflation-adjusted GDP figures as well as the nominal or current price numbers.

Analysts will also be keenly watching the CSO’s nominal GDP growth rate estimates for July-September for cues on GST’s inflationary impact. Real or inflation-adjusted GDP is usually calculated by subtracting the growth in actual or nominal GDP by the inflation rate or “price deflators.”

A flat or moderate growth in real GDP could also mean that GST may have had pushed up overall prices in the economy. On other hand, a higher real GDP growth could well be an indicator about GST’s minimal impact on prices of goods and services.

17:05 Tax accounting change

The July-September 2017 GDP data will be the first set of data giving out GDP estimates based on new GST tax estimates. With GST kicking in from July 1, and tax return filing still not smoothening out, official statisticians may have to rely on approximations to measure changes in India’s GDP in the absence of past tax collection data on a comparable scale.

Inter-period tax collections are critical for GDP calculations. GDP represents the total value of goods and services produced in the country. Gross Value Added (GVA), is GDP minus taxes. GVA is a more accurate guide to calculate changes in the total value of goods and services produced.

Since GST has subsumed a string of local and central levies such as value added tax, excise and service tax into a single tax, and considering erratic GST tax returns in July-September, analysts will be keenly looking for cues on the government’s own estimates about tax collections in this quarter. Official, but unannounced, estimates of GST tax collections could well be hiding in the second quarter GDP estimates.

16:55 Let's look at three things to watch out for from today's national income data, starting with the impact of GST restocking.

India witnessed one of the biggest one-off sale season ahead of the rollout of GST from July 1. A mid-year switchover to GST had prompted anxious shops and companies to de-stock and clear up the inventory pile ahead of the new system’s kick off.The scale down in production could have a bearing on the overall GDP growth numbers in April-June.The government has been claiming the slowdown was a one-off affair, given the large scale inventory clearance before GST’s rollout. This may well be the case, with many companies building inventories from August, factoring in price and cost changes brought about by GST.Consumption demand in both urban (vehicle sales, consumer credit) and rural (two-wheeler, tractor sales) areas has improved, as have indicators of private investment demand (railway traffic, capital goods production).  Export volumes have also risen 8.4 percent in July-September (from 4.6 percent in April-June).
 

16:50 The Indian economy grew 5.7 percent in April-June, the slowest in 13 quarters. It was sharply lower than last year’s 7.9 percent expansion in the same quarter as also the previous quarter’s 6.1 percent growth, reeling under the stock management shock caused ahead of GST’s rollout.

16.45 Has the Indian economy turned the corner after the disruptions caused by Goods and Services Tax (GST)? Or do the effects of GST implementation continue to hold sway over factory output and inventories? The national income statistics will have the answers.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) will release gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates for the second quarter (July-September) of 2017-18 at 5.30 pm today.
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  • November 30, 2017 06:13 PM IST

  • November 30, 2017 08:01 PM IST

    That's it from the live updates. Read the full report on the GDP growth numbers here

  • November 30, 2017 07:43 PM IST

    On the rising prices of perishables, Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian said that the government will take action to keep prices in check. In recent times, while the prices of non-perishable goods like oilseeds and pulses have reduced, prices of perishable goods have risen.

  • November 30, 2017 07:27 PM IST

    Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar says the only weakness is exports and construction as of now. "Much more focus and attention is required to boost exports," Kumar said.

  • November 30, 2017 07:16 PM IST

    Finance secretary Hasmukh Adhia says there is likely to be some shortfall in indirect taxes since “we will have only 11 months revenues and 12 months expenditure”.

  • November 30, 2017 07:02 PM IST

    FM Arun Jaitley says the fixed capital formation also means that investment is moving upwards.

  • November 30, 2017 07:00 PM IST

    Jaitley says the growth in manufacturing has been heartening.

  • November 30, 2017 06:58 PM IST

    We should hopefully go back to higher growth rates in the coming quarters, says Jaitley. 

  • November 30, 2017 06:55 PM IST

    Jaitley says the effects of demonetisation and GST are now behind us. "Now we can look for upward trajectory," he says.

  • November 30, 2017 06:52 PM IST

    Arun Jaitley is speaking now. He says this quarter's result has been impacted by the growth in manufacturing. 

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